- Analysts say ruling coalition candidate Wadagni is favorite to succeed Patrice Talon
- If no candidate gets absolute majority in first round, second round will be held May 10
Voters in Benin are heading to the polls Sunday to elect a new president in a two-horse race that analysts said has a “foregone outcome.”
Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni, 49, a candidate of the ruling coalition, is considered the favorite, following a failed coup attempt in December.
He is being challenged by Paul Hounkpe, the sole opposition candidate.
Key opposition figure Renaud Agbodjo, leader of The Democrats, was barred from the election due to a lack of the necessary parliamentary backing after his party failed to get enough lawmakers.
Nearly 8 million voters are eligible to take part in the election, with voting to be conducted in more than 17,000 polling stations, according to the national electoral body.
A candidate must obtain an absolute majority of votes cast, 50% + 1, to be declared the winner.
If no candidate receives an absolute majority in the first round, a second round will be held May 10.
The ECOWAS West African bloc has deployed observers headed by former Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo to monitor the election.
Voting for continuity?
Benin has long been regarded as one of Africa’s more stable democracies, but rights groups accuse outgoing President Patrice Talon of using legal and institutional tools to weaken dissent since 2016, when he took office, charges he denies.
A constitutional revision adopted in November extended presidential terms from five to seven years, and introduced a Senate with members partly appointed by the president.
Jeannine Ella Abatan, senior researcher at Africa’s Institute for Security Studies, said having been chosen by the ruling coalition, Wadagni is the “favorite” in the election because of his broad support from leading figures of the ruling bloc and civil society.
The election has a “foregone outcome” because the opposition challenger has a low profile, coming from the Cowry Forces for an Emerging Benin (FCBE) moderate political party, Abatan told Anadolu.
Abatan believes that despite the election, there may not be a major break from the policies of Talon, who was barred by constitutional term limits from seeking reelection.
“If Wadangi wins the election, he will be a new face, but it will be a continuity of the policies put in place by President Talon,” she said.
During his last rally on Friday in the commercial capital of Cotonou, Wadangi pledged to move forward with the country’s economic transformation, hoping to sustain one of the region's strongest growth rates. He has highlighted economic and social policies, which include easing access to microcredit.
Benin recorded 7% growth last year, according to the International Monetary Fund, positioning itself among the more stable economies in West Africa.
Growth is expected to average 7.1% from 2025 to 2027, according to the World Bank, with agriculture, trade, and a major port expansion in the economic hub of Cotonou acting as the main drivers.
Hounkpe, a former culture minister, campaigned on the promise of reducing the price of basic products and securing the release of political prisoners.
To contain insurgency, Hounkpe, 56, argues that joining forces with Benin’s neighbors is “essential.”
Security a key concern
Benin is one of the countries in West Africa hit by insurgents linked to al-Qaeda, with regular attacks reported on the land borders between Niger, Benin and Nigeria.
An al-Qaeda affiliate group known by its acronym, JNIM, killed 15 soldiers last month in an attack on a military base in Kofouno, near the border with Niger.
Wadangi has pledged to “make sure our whole country is under protection.”
He has promised to create municipal police forces in northern border towns to fend off attacks.
Abatan said one of the main issues Wadangi put forward during his campaigns is tackling security in the north and improving relations with Niger and Burkina Faso.
Improving relations is significant, according to the analyst, because Benin's relationship with the two neighboring states went sour after the militaries overthrew those governments.
Gilbert Toko, a Rwanda-based political researcher and commentator, said Wadagni’s impressive track record during his 10 years as finance minister gives him an added advantage over his opponent.
He noted that security concerns in Benin complicated the political environment for the opposition, pointing to the December coup attempt.
The failed coup could reinforce support for the ruling coalition as many voters, who are cautious about instability, would naturally choose continuity, said Toko.
