- Paul Kagame, in power since 2000, is tipped to easily beat opposition candidate Frank Habineza and independent Philippe Mpayimana in presidential race
KIGALI, Rwanda
As Rwanda gears up for presidential and legislative elections, experts are predicting a straightforward win for incumbent President Paul Kagame and his ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) party.
The election will be conducted over a three-day period between July 14 and 16, with a three-week campaign period coming to a close on July 13.
Rwandans in the diaspora will cast their ballots for the president and 53 members of Parliament on July 14 at the country’s diplomatic missions, while within the country, voters will head to the polls on July 15.
On July 16, 24 female members of Parliament, two youth representatives and one representative of people living with disabilities will be elected by special electoral colleges.
The national electoral body will announce provisional results of the elections on July 20, while the final results will be announced on July 27, according to the electoral commission’s schedule.
Around 9.7 million people are eligible to vote in the country of roughly 14 million, including 3.7 million youth voters.
Some 100,000 voluntary polling officials will be deployed at more than 2,500 polling stations across the country, with the entire process costing about 8 billion Rwandan francs (slightly above $6 million), according to the election commission.
Who are the presidential contenders?
Kagame is up against Frank Habineza of the opposition Democratic Green Party of Rwanda (DGPR) and independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana – the same two contenders he beat in 2017.
Kagame, 66, first assumed power in 2000, and has since won elections in 2003, 2010 and 2017.
He won the 2017 polls with more than 98% of the vote, according to official figures.
Kagame campaigned on a promise to sustain inclusive development, security and change people’s livelihoods for the better without leaving anyone behind.
He is seeking reelection following a 2015 constitutional amendment that allowed him to run for three more terms.
The constitutional changes also allowed him to serve a seven-year third term in 2017, but reduced the presidential term to five years from 2024.
The opposition’s candidate Habineza is a former legislator, who joined the recently dissolved Parliament in 2018.
In the 2017 election, he ended last with 0.48% of the vote.
Habineza was elected vice chair of the Parliament’s Social Affairs Committee in 2018, and has been president of the DGPR since August 2009.
He served as the executive director of the African Greens Federation and has also served as the program coordinator for Africa in the Green Forum Foundation, Sweden.
Habineza has promised his party would tackle issues of food insecurity by increasing the national budget for agriculture, tackle unemployment, which stands around 16%, and ensure sustainable security and wealth once elected.
He also boasts of initiating legislation to reduce the country’s land tax and has promised to scrap the land tax if elected.
The third candidate Mpayimana is a former French teacher, who until recently worked as a senior expert at the Ministry of National Unity and Civic Engagement since November 2021.
In 2017, Mpayimana finished with 0.72% of the vote.
He has also previously worked in various media houses as a journalist.
Mpayimana, 54, has promised to expand access to student loans and to advocate for more living allowance for students once elected.
Which are the main parties?
There are 11 registered political parties in Rwanda, but only two – RPF and DGPR – are fielding presidential candidates.
The ruling party enjoys the support of major opposition groups such as the Social Democratic Party of former Foreign Minister Vincent Biruta and the Liberal Party led by Donatille Mukabalisa, a former Parliament speaker.
Aside from the RPF and DGPR, the Liberal Party, Social Democratic Party, Ideal Democratic Party and the Social Party Imberakuri are all fielding parliamentary candidates.
The electoral commission cleared over 500 contenders for 53 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Parliament.
What are the main issues and expected outcomes?
Ismael Buchanan, a Rwandan researcher and senior lecturer of political science at the University of Rwanda, believes security, political stability, unity and economic development are the core issues concerning Rwandans.
According to Buchanan, Kagame’s “impressive” standing among young people and women will give him their votes.
Other commentators like political scientist Frederick Golooba-Mutebi also foresee Kagame cruising to victory.
“President Kagame will win the presidential elections with the usual share of over 90%. He’s backed by nine out of 11 parties and those that don’t support him are the two smallest one,” he told Anadolu.
“Rwanda will remain stable and peaceful and continue on its trajectory of rapid socioeconomic change. It will remain a highly consequential member of the East African Community (EAC) bloc,” he added.
Since 2021, one of the issues that dominated Rwanda’s foreign policy has been accusations that Kigali supports the M23 rebels fighting in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
Rwanda has persistently denied the allegations.
At one of his recent campaign rallies, Kagame stressed that Rwanda is seeking “peaceful coexistence” with its neighbors and beyond.
Louis Gitinywa, a Rwanda-based political analyst, believes that with Kagame’s expected win, the country’s geopolitical agenda will likely remain unchanged for the next five years.
“I don’t think there will be a major surprise regarding the election results and the incumbent will win, as he does have strong support across the country,” he told Anadolu.
“My reading of the current political context is that it will be business as usual.”
