By Richard McColl
BOGOTA, Colombia
Colombians woke up last week to a definitive cease-fire in place between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas and the government.
Since the conflict began in 1964, peace is a real and probable outcome for the first time pending results of a national referendum next month.
For almost four years, members of the government’s negotiating team and FARC representatives had been locked in contentious and at times increasingly fragile-looking negotiations in Cuban capital Havana.
The hard work has been done of getting to a deal that will be signed Sept. 26 in Cartagena but difficult issues remain for both sides, such as will the FARC fully demobilize in the time frame spelled out in the agreement? And will they sever their ties with the lucrative cocaine industry that has been FARC's main source of income?
For the government, it will need to address the power vacuum in those regions that have previously known nothing, or tragically little, of a state presence and where the FARC were de facto rulers.
Detractors of the peace deal, such as the outspoken former president and now senator for the Democratic Center, Alvaro Uribe, have accused the government of having conceded too much and forecast unheralded levels of impunity.
The party has claimed that under the deal no FARC guerrillas will have to serve prison time. However, that is not entirely accurate. Alternative sentences could be handed down and anyone found guilty of crimes against humanity would be jailed.
Some also claim President Juan Manuel Santos is handing over the country to the FARC and Colombia will become another Venezuela allied to the guerrillas. A revolution will soon come to Colombia, they say.
Those concerns notwithstanding, the deal that was announced on Aug. 24 represents the first time in 52 years that Colombians have lived without a conflict with the FARC.
300,000 deaths
The conflict began as a fight for land and has caused the deaths of nearly 300,000 people and the displacement of 6 million. While there are lingering doubts about the agreement -- three attempts at reaching peace have failed since 1983 -- no previous talks have ever reached this far.
“This is a significant moment because it means the ending of the longest-running armed conflict in the Western hemisphere,” said Gwen Burnyeat, an anthropologist and the producer of Chocolate of Peace, a documentary on the conflict-affected Peace Community of San Jose de Apartado.
Armed groups -- such as possible FARC splinter groups, new criminal gangs (or Bacrims) formed from the ashes of the right-wing paramilitary forces and Colombia’s second guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN) -- will probably continue to inflict violence on the population in the wake of the peace accord.
The ELN on Saturday attacked infrastructure in Saravena, essentially rendering the city cut off from the rest of the country. The group, however, said it would respect areas where the FARC will be placed in a post-accord period.
Colombia has lived through more than five decades of war and since peace talks began in 2012, the country has registered the lowest level of conflict-related deaths since 1951.
“In the last year alone, aggressions by the FARC, deaths of civilians and the military have fallen by 98 percent and, since the peace talks began, this is the equivalent of 1,200 Colombians that have been spared from dying in the armed conflict,” Silvia Mantilla, a migrations and conflict expert at the National University of Colombia, said.
There are fears a peace deal will not rehabilitate or hold accountable those guilty of countless human rights abuses such as torture, forced displacements, sexual violence and mass killings.
Such concerns have provided the impetus to the anti-accord campaign in a nationwide referendum scheduled for next month.
For the Santos government to be victorious on the vote, 13 percent, or 4.5 million registered voters, need to favor the peace accords. Recent polls indicate 39 percent favor the deal with 28 percent against.
Increased tourism
“The agreement has been heralded as solid by the international community and the plebiscite on Oct. 2 is the opportunity for Colombians to legitimize the agreements in the face of spoilers in a democratic exercise, which is a positive seed for civil society participation in implementing the agreements and building peace across multiple sectors,” said the anthropologist Burnyeat.
If Colombians choose the peace agreement, the country will face the urgent task of reintegrating into society as many as 7,000 former combatants and members of their urban militias.
The government is banking on increased tourism as an option that would lead to a growth in international investment as Colombia’s reputation improves.
“Colombia has always been considered as a problematic country and one in war where the social classes have always been very separate,” Rafael Gomez, a manager at the Promotora Inmobiliaria Granate construction company in Santa Marta, said.
“The FARC was a product of this class division and the apathy of the state. The signing of the peace agreement, in addition to being a success in terms of a negotiation, represents a generational shift. Many Colombians have never known Colombia without conflict.
“The conflict has been a limiting factor for important sources of income and has resulted in low competitiveness. This has to change.”
As the cease-fire took effect, the government and those supporting the deal began drumming up support for the “Yes” camp. The benefits of increased social mobility and the need for reconciliation has been the focus of much of the campaign.
Alongside the pros of the deal, however, there are cautionary tales and concerns of incomplete or less inclusive and unsuccessful peace accords such the 1996 deal in Guatemala that was viewed by many observers as one-sided and failed to address the root causes of the conflict.
The current deal may not be perfect but peace is within reach in Colombia. Being able to repair the human and material damage is a lot easier with a deal than no deal, according to Mantilla.
“It’s true that a real peace will neither be achieved nor resolve the structural problems in our society such as the human tragedies of poverty and hunger, the obstacles in achieving work and progressing, but it’s clear that during a conflict these possibilities are reduced even further,” she said.
All eyes are on Oct. 2.
