More than 25 million Peruvians are expected to head to the polls Sunday to choose a new president from a staggering field of 35 candidates.
In a very fragmented political landscape, experts agree that a June 7 run-off election is all but certain, as no candidate is expected to capture the majority needed for an outright victory.
The frontrunners encapsulate the ideological fractures within the Andean nation. Keiko Fujimori, leading the Fuerza Popular party, is making her fourth presidential bid. As the daughter of the late Alberto Fujimori, she champions a far-right platform while navigating the shadow of her father’s divisive legacy and her own legal battles.
Despite her consistent polling, she faces a formidable obstacle: a staggering 70% - 80% disapproval rating.
On the same side of the spectrum is Rafael Lopez Aliaga of Renovacion Popular, who recently resigned as mayor of Lima to launch his second presidential campaign.
Meanwhile, the anti-establishment surge has bolstered 80-year-old media mogul Ricardo Belmont. A former mayor of Lima, Belmont’s popularity spiked following the 2022 ousting of Pedro Castillo, as he positioned himself as the leading voice for the disenfranchised.
Representing the pro-Castillo left is sitting congressman Roberto Sanchez (Juntos por el Peru), a former minister in the Castillo administration who is running on a platform of political vindication for the ousted leader.
Decade of political instability
Peru has become a global case study in political instability, cycling through eight presidents in a single decade. The country has weathered impeachments (vacancias), the dissolution of Congress and massive social unrest. Even a past administration faced a crisis recently when President Dina Boluarte was nearly removed for possessing luxury watches.
According to Franco Olcese, a political analyst and founder of Centro Winaq, the executive branch in Peru lacks the structural weight of the legislature. He noted that as a result, “it has found it uncomplicated to remove a sitting president” through frequent impeachment proceedings.
But Peru’s economy remains remarkably resilient. That is largely due to the absolute independence of the Central Reserve Bank (BCR), which remains shielded from political volatility.
“In Peru, certain institutions function effectively, most notably the Central Bank, which operates independently of political volatility,” said Olcese. “This autonomy is sustained by a deep foundation of social and public backing that shields it from partisan shifts.”
He said the private sector has become resilient by necessity, adding that Peruvian businesses have “learned to navigate a system defined by this chronic uncertainty.”
Crime, ‘Bukele’ factor
For the average voter, the primary concern on Sunday is not ideology, but personal safety. Insecurity has reached a breaking point as extortion, kidnapping and organized crime hit record levels -- homicides alone surged to more than 2,600 last year.
The climate of fear has pushed frontrunners like Fujimori and Lopez Aliaga to propose drastic, "iron-fist" security measures.
Lopez Aliaga has gone as far as to suggest the construction of penal colonies in the Amazon rainforest, while Fujimori has campaigned on forcing inmates into labor for their own sustenance. The shift toward El Salvador President Nayib "Bukele-style" rhetoric emphasizes state control and punitive justice over traditional civil liberties.
“Insecurity is the primary concern for Peruvians, yet so far, no candidate has truly positioned themselves as the definitive leader in the fight against crime,” said Olcese.
Rise of ‘Peruvian Zelensky’
The rejection of Peru’s traditional political class has paved the way for unconventional outsiders. Carlos Alvarez, a renowned comedian and political satirist who has spent three decades parodying the country's leaders, has emerged as a serious contender, drawing inevitable comparisons to Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.
Running under the "País para Todos" party, Alvarez has traded comedy sketches for a platform of extreme "mano dura," or iron fist, policies. He has publicly admired the security models of Donald Trump and Bukele, advocating for mega-prisons and the death penalty for violent crimes.
“Many people know him, and because the population is so disconnected from politics, he has seen strong numbers. Crucially, he has the lowest 'anti-vote' (disapproval rating) in the field,” noted Olcese. “This speaks volumes about the sentiment Peruvians have for their traditional political class --they simply no longer trust them, and in Alvarez, they see a familiar face who isn't part of the system.”
New rules aimed at ending instability
With 35 candidates on the ballot, the next president could realistically enter a second-round runoff with less than 15% of the vote. The fragmentation has sparked fears that the cycle of instability will persist, but significant constitutional reforms taking effect July 29 aim to change the game.
For the first time in more than three decades, Peru is transitioning back to a bicameral system. The new Congress will consist of a 60-member Senate and a Chamber of Deputies with 130 representatives, all elected to five-year terms. Under the new rules, removing a president becomes a much steeper uphill battle. A "vacancy" now requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers, meaning a president only needs to maintain the support of one-third of either house to survive.
“Removing a president is now more difficult. It’s not impossible, but the president will have more tools to protect themselves,” said Olcese. The structural shift, combined with a fresh electoral mandate, could provide the next leader with the legislative "breathing room" that their predecessors lacked.
Geopolitical stakes: Washington vs. Beijing
Beyond the domestic struggle for order, the election serves as a battleground for global influence. China is Peru’s largest trading partner, a relationship anchored by major infrastructure projects such as the Chancay megaport, which is set to become a primary gateway for South American exports to Asia.
Meanwhile, the US has ramped up efforts to maintain its foothold in the region, pushing for stronger security cooperation and political alignment to counter Beijing’s growing economic footprint.
