India won’t be able to replace China in trade with US in short term: Experts

ISTANBUL

India will not be able to replace China in trade with the US in the short term, even if an agreement is reached, as Washington seeks to diversify its supply chain, experts told Anadolu.

As the US-China trade war continues with no solution in sight, the US’s approach to India has come to the fore as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said one of the first agreements could be made with India to shift the investments of US enterprises to the country as an alternative to China, the world’s largest manufacturing hub.

But Sant Manukyan, international capital markets manager at Türkiye-based IS Investment, said it is “not possible” for India to replace China in the short term.

“In terms of expertise, infrastructure, and legal infrastructure, this is not very possible in the short term. But in the long term, there may be such a plan to do so,” he said.

Manukyan emphasized that the situation shouldn’t be inferred as a mere seeking out of an alternative supplier. It can also be considered as “not leaving India out for grabs, especially by the China-Russia duo.”

He noted that the US wants to bring India to its side, highlighting that the country’s rivalry with Pakistan and its past indifference to the Cold War or neutral stance on Russia are important balancing factors.

“But in general, India is a country familiar with Anglo-Saxon culture due to the British influence in its past, so there are no language barriers. It would be correct to assume that the US will want to take advantage of this potential,” he added.

Filiz Eryilmaz, assistant professor of economics at Bursa Uludag University in Türkiye, said the US’s ultimate goal could be to hinder China in some way, as the country has made rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and the US wants to stop its advancements.

“It is evident from the exemptions they (the White House) granted to other countries in terms of tariffs. We can say the US is working to hamper China’s growth and India will try to fill the gap that China will leave behind, but it is not possible for India to make up for the Chinese market in the short term,” she said.

“India may face challenges in textiles, automotive, and supporting industries while trying to replace China, and while this is positive for India, the country cannot fully replace China in the short term,” she added.