Juan Guaido: A world tour to regain trust

BOGOTA, Colombia

Bolstered by the Trump administration, Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido began his unexpected global tour here, where he was welcomed with full head of state honors by Colombian President Ivan Duque.

He then headed to Europe to meet world leaders and completed his foreign trip in Canada, where he was received Monday by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

But the level of expectation that has surrounded the tour has not been the same as it was a year ago when Guaido swore himself in as interim president of Venezuela.

Undermined by corruption scandals

For many Venezuelans, Guaido is no longer the person they pinned their hopes on for a change of government.

"I don’t agree with those who say that the international tour was organized to relaunch Guaido´s somewhat deteriorated image,” says Ronal Rodríguez, a Bogota-based researcher at the Venezuela Observatory of the Universidad del Rosario. “I think it was more of a damage control tour."

In fact, Guaido´s reputation was damaged after website Armando.info reported on a corruption scandal whereby opposition lawmakers had advocated for a businessman linked to the government of President Nicolas Maduro. Immediately after the allegations were published, Guaido said the opposition-controlled Congress would investigate alleged wrongdoing on part of his fellow lawmakers.

But the damage was already done inasmuch as the success of the opposition movement led by Guaido has relied purely on international recognition. "Guaido has not exercised power in Venezuela; his biggest accomplishment has been to generate pressure from international actors," says Rodriguez. He had to regain the trust of his allies.

Regaining international legitimacy

In the framework of the tour, Guaido appeared with some of the political leaders who have recognized him as the country's rightful interim ruler. He held talks in London with U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab and Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a show of support from the British government for his campaign against Maduro.

Shortly after, he landed in Davos, Switzerland where he met German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the heads of Austria, Greece and the Netherlands and he addressed global leaders, pleading for help to overturn Maduro.

Taking center stage at Davos is something few leaders in the world achieve. According to Rodríguez, without international pressure and a strong lobby, Guaido would not have been included on the agenda. He is the first Venezuelan leader to have been greeted by more than three heads of state in one week; a feat not even Maduro achieved.

"And that display makes Guaido seem more important than he really is," says Rodriguez. Some countries still do not recognize Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate leader. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez did not agree to meet Guaido in Madrid, where he gathered with members of the Venezuelan diaspora and held talks with Spain’s foreign minister.

Leader outside Venezuela

Many Venezuelans believe that this international success does not translate into a real change in crisis-stricken Venezuela.

In the meantime, Maduro is also playing his cards. He invited European Union and United Nations delegates to accompany legislative elections he says should be held this year. Apparently, he retains his grip on power.

"I am almost certain that if elections are held, Venezuela opposition will lose, even with international support," says Rodriguez. As of early November 2019, there were approximately 4.6 million refugees and migrants from Venezuela around the world, many of whom are living irregularly in receiving countries and facing multiple difficulties to obtain a passport. "Without their identification documents they cannot participate in the country's decision-making processes."

High expectations

The tour has been built around expectations of a tangible proposal. "We have to see if Guaido materializes expectations after meeting with great leaders of the world. Otherwise, its value will be irrelevant," points out Rodriguez.

The leader of the Venezuelan opposition already announced he was bringing good news home. U.S. President Donald Trump echoed those sentiments to journalists standing in the corridors of the World Economic Forum in Davos. "I think Venezuela will do very well, you just watch," he said.

In Caracas, Maduro reacted to the tour. "The biggest fool went on a trip to take his failure to Venezuela, to make it a worldwide failure. I hope that the Venezuelan judiciary is following up on all the calls for military intervention and sanctions against Venezuela, and that decisions are taken to make justice in Venezuela," he said.

Going back to Caracas

The trip raises questions about Guaido's return to Caracas. When is he going back? How? After a big international acclaim, the media will most likely cover his return so the government will probably avoid capturing him even though he violated the foreign-travel ban imposed by the Venezuelan Supreme Court.

What is certain is that there will be no negotiated solution with Maduro. When asked about the possibility of holding dialogue attempts, Guaido answered a resounding "no."