Large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to topple Iran’s regime, US intel report says

ISTANBUL

Even a large-scale US military offensive would be unlikely to overthrow Iran’s military and clerical power structure, according to a classified National Intelligence Council report.

The assessment -- reported Saturday by The Washington Post, citing three sources familiar with the classified document -- undercuts US President Donald Trump’s assertion that he could “clean out” Iran’s leadership and install a preferred successor, indicating such an outcome would be far from certain.

The National Intelligence Council comprises senior analysts responsible for producing classified assessments that reflect the consensus of all 18 US intelligence agencies.

Completed about a week before the US and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, the report explored potential scenarios if Iran’s leadership were targeted in either limited strikes or broader attacks on government institutions.

The intelligence assessment indicated that even if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were killed, the country’s military and clerical leadership would likely follow established succession mechanisms to preserve the existing power structure.

Sources speaking anonymously about the classified findings also said it was “unlikely” that Iran’s fragmented opposition would be able to seize power.

The report did not appear to evaluate other potential options, such as deploying US ground troops in Iran or arming Kurdish groups to spark an uprising, and it remains unclear whether the scenario examined matches the current military operation.

Regional tensions have escalated since the United States and Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran on Feb. 28, killing more than 1,000 people, including Khamenei, over 150 schoolgirls, and senior military officials.

Iran has retaliated with sweeping barrages of its own that have targeted US bases, diplomatic facilities, and military personnel across the region, as well as multiple Israeli cities.