Vakkas Doğantekin
21 October 2020•Update: 21 October 2020
ANKARA
With President Donald Trump trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden less than two weeks from Nov. 3, Election Day, a pollster who correctly predicted the 2016 race is bucking his colleagues to say that “hidden votes” will once again carry Trump past the finish line.
Robert Cahaly, chief pollster of the Georgia-based Trafalgar Group, told Fox News late Tuesday that Donald Trump is likely to be reelected with the help of what he calls ''hidden, shy Trump voters.''
''I see the president winning with a minimum [electoral vote count in the] high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,'' Cahaly told Fox host Sean Hannity, whose show is a Republican-friendly venue.
This invisible army is made up of conservative Americans who turn away pollsters for fear of reprisal, he said, keeping them below the radar.
'What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what we refer to as the shy Trump voter,' he said.
''There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily on the telephone. These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this ... you’re not going to get honest answers,'' he added.
Wary of such concerns, in fact, after most surveys incorrectly called the 2016 race, some pollsters have been adding “if the polls are as wrong as in 2016” adjustments to their analyses, as well as trying harder to reach conservative voters.
The Trafalgar Group entered the national spotlight in 2016 after showing Trump leading in the key states of Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of Election Day, despite most observers saying his opponent Hillary Clinton was on track to win. Trump carried all three states and beat the former secretary of state, astonishing most pollsters and pundits.
Cahaly went on to say that Trump will win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia, where most polls indicate a stalemate or show Biden with a slight lead.
