MEXICO CITY
More than 100 million Mexicans will head to the polls this Sunday in what is being dubbed the biggest election in the nation’s history as they choose their next president and reshape Mexico’s political landscape.
Besides the impact on the political environment, with more than 20,000 posts up for grabs, including in city councils, mayorships and governorships, and the restructuring of the Mexican Congress, the elections could be historic, as it may mark the first time that a woman is chosen as president.
Nevertheless, the polls will be held in a divided nation. Mexicans will have to decide between continuing the political project that President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, also known as AMLO, initiated or reverting to the old political elite, who are eagerly trying to reclaim the power they once held.
Former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum has led in most polls, representing the ruling party, the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), which was founded by Lopez Obrador in 2011.
The 61-year-old physicist with a doctorate in environmental engineering has been a close ally of the president and part of Morena since its inception and led Mexico City since she was elected mayor in 2018.
"What she has indicated is that there is going to be an unrestricted continuity (of AMLO’s administration) and nothing more," Arturo Espinoza, head of the think tank Laboratorio Electoral, told Anadolu.
"We know that Claudia Sheinbaum is the continuity to the government of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, but continuity in every sense because she has not even tried to show some self-criticism or an attempt to make some adjustments regarding the mistakes of this government," he said.
Sheinbaum has promised maintain most of the current administration’s policies, including those pertaining to public security, public spending and the government's social welfare programs, which have pulled 5 million Mexicans out of poverty, according to government figures.
She will continue to rely on the Mexican military to fight organized crime, promising to make the National Guard an extension of the army rather than a security agency of its own, channel resources to guarantee free education at all school levels and encourage the use of renewable energy.
Trailing behind her in the polls, Xochitl Galvez represents Morena's political opposition. An alliance between former rivals comprising the PRI, PAN and PRD parties, the political elite that governed until Amlo's arrival, has promised a political project to rescue the country from Morena, which they consider a failure and a threat to Mexican democracy.
For AMLO's opponents, his administration has been characterized by attacks against the other branches of government and democratic institutions. His attempts to reform Mexico's electoral body, the National Electoral Institute of Mexico (INE), which he has called corrupt, and the absorbing of autonomous bodies by the federal government to reduce public spending concern a large part of the population.
"Galvez is a different politician, a change, especially regarding the issues of authoritarianism, the problems of limits to the exercising of power, in the matters of respect for democratic rule. I think that is what she has shown the most," said Espinoza.
In addition, many of AMLO’s critics have called his security strategy a failure. With more than 180,000 murders during his administration, making it the most violent period in the country's history, the so-called "hugs not bullets" strategy has been strongly criticized.
Galvez has launched her campaign on democratic openness and respect for democratic institutions, a firm hand against organized crime and support for business owners.
Finally, there is Jorge Alvarez Maynez, a former lawmaker in the lower house and the candidate for Movimiento Ciudadano, a party which has sought to displace the PRI-PAN-PRD alliance as the second choice for Mexicans. Maynez has sought to capture the younger vote, a historically abstentionist demographic, through progressive reforms such as legalizing marijuana, withdrawing the military from public security tasks and improving social welfare.
Since March, the three candidates have waged a battle in the country to attract Mexican voters, but most polls have projected a clear lead.
According to Polls Mx, a website that tracks various polls in the country, Sheinbaum has led throughout the campaign trail with the majority of the support. As of May 29, she was leading with 55% in the polls, followed by Galvez with 31% and Maynez with 13%.
Sheinbaum's popularity can be explained by the great support that Lopez Obrador enjoyed during his administration. Since being elected president in 2018, where he won with 56% of all votes, AMLO has led with great popularity, with some pollsters pegging his approval rate at almost 60% near the end of his term.
His election was accompanied by a massive vote for his party which gave Morena a majority in both houses of Congress. Currently, Morena governs over almost 70% of the Mexican population and holds the governorships of 21 out of the country's 32 states.
"I believe that we will have a re-composition of the political map with greater plurality. That is to say Morena is going to lose a little of its broad dominance. There is going to be a little more balance between the political forces. Although, I think it will continue to be a polarized country," said Espinoza.
According to the INE, more than 170,000 polling stations will be open throughout the country. The more than 100 million eligible voters will be able to go to the polls starting at 8 a.m., with the last vote to be cast at 6 p.m.
Although the results will not be officially announced until days later, the INE will announce the virtual winner on Sunday night. Offering two preliminary results, Mexicans will learn who their next president is before midnight.
