By Kyaw Ye Lynn
YANGON, Myanmar
Beijing is hoping that a controversial multi-billion dollar hydropower project in Myanmar will be allowed to restart, following the visit of state counselor Aung San Suu Kyi to Beijing.
Suu Kyi begins a five-day visit to China on Wednesday, during which she is expected to meet leaders and exchange views on furthering bilateral relations and cooperation.
In 2011, Myanmar's former president, Thein Sein, ordered a halt to construction of the Myitsone dam following growing criticism from prominent statesmen in Myanmar, including then-main opposition leader Suu Kyi.
Opponents of the project -- financed and led by a state-owned Chinese company -- claim it would flood a national heritage area the size of Singapore, affect hundreds of thousands of people, and say that a vast majority of the electricity generated from the project is expected to go to China.
With the coming to power of Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) in late March, Beijing is hoping that Myanmar will have a change of heart.
Days before Suu Kyi’s visit, Myanmar President Htin Kyaw formed a committee to review the project, with the Global Times -- the mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China -- seeing the move as hope that the project will resume.
“More good news is expected during Suu Kyi's upcoming trip as the new administration may eventually begin touching upon the most sensitive parts of bilateral economic ties,” the daily report said.
“But it may be not realistic that the long standing issue of the Myitsone dam will be entirely resolved during Suu Kyi's visit,” it stressed.
A senior official from Suu Kyi’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Anadolu Agency on Tuesday that the dam is likely to be high on the agenda.
“We’re well-prepared for a response as we believe China will definitely raise the issue,” Kyaw Zeya, the ministry's director general, said by phone.
Media reports have suggested that Myanmar has three options for the $3.6 billion project -- it can cancel the dam and be liable to the tune of $800 million in compensation, resume work on the project and earn $500 million a year in revenue on completion, or do nothing and pay $50 million in interest per year during the term of suspension.
Activists, however, are up in arms at the very thought that the NLD could give the green light to a project which they see as having very little material gain for Myanmar, yet would cause tremendous problems to local communities.
“Myanmar people will never accept the project to proceed, and the government needs to find other acceptable solutions,” Peace and Open Society's Ko Ko Gyi, a former student leader in the 1988 pro-democracy movement, told Anadolu Agency by phone Tuesday.
“The project is a big showcase for China while it is a big problem for Myanmar,” he underlined.
Environmental groups claim the dam site -- at the confluence of the Mali and N'Mai rivers in the Ayeyawaddy river basin -- is around 100 kilometers (60 miles) from an earthquake fault line, and would cause tremendous environmental impact to communities downstream.
The area of outstanding natural beauty -- the birthplace of the Ayayawaddy River, the longest river in Myanmar -- is seen as a national heritage site.
Around 90 percent of the electricity generated from the project is expected to go to China, although the exact amount has never been publicized and most people believe that Myanmar has little to benefit from the project.
On Monday, deputy lower house speaker Ti Khun Myat, the chairman of the newly-formed project review committee, attempted to appease protesters that the government was looking for a way to permanently cancel the project.
“People don’t need to worry,” he underlined at a press conference in Nay Pyi Taw.
During her visit, Suu Kyi is also expected to discuss Myanmar's ongoing peace talks with ethnic rebels groups with Chinese officials.
China is on Myanmar's northern border, and in 2015, shelling from neighboring Myanmar wounded five people in the southern Chinese province of Yunnan -- cross-border fire that strained ties between the neighbors.
“Like it or not, China plays a big role in Myanmar’s peace process,” Ko Ko Gyi told Anadolu Agency without providing specific details.
Under military rule in Myanmar, Beijing established a close relationship with some rebel groups along the border, including the most powerful group, the United Wa State Army.
Prior to 2011 -- when military rule ended -- China enjoyed considerable influence in significant commercial and strategic interests in a country that sits on the rim of the Indian Ocean.
It remains Myanmar's largest trading partner, but has watched nervously in recent years as its influence waned with Washington lifting sanctions and engaging with Thein Sein's quasi-civilian government.
Talking to Anadolu Agency on Sunday, a well-connected businessman working on the Myanmar-China border said Myanmar politicians needed to weigh up its options and “act very carefully and cleverly” over the coming days.
“It is obvious that China can easily make Myanmar’s economy upset as they have big influence with the most powerful ethnic rebels,” he said on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
“China just needs to spend a billion dollars, and then our country will be in a big trouble."
On Monday, Suu Kyi stressed the importance of peace in the country.
The government has invited all rebel groups to join an Aug. 31 peace conference -- in an effort to find an end to fighting that for many began when the country gained independence from Britain in 1948.
"If there is no peace, any economy would collapse, no matter how highly developed it is," she said. "No economy can be sustained if there is no peace in the long term. That’s why peace is very important for us."
She underlined, however, that the government was not prepared to disregard social and economic sectors because of the peace process: "We will handle them concurrently."
The businessman said he saw the trip as a major test for "Amay Suu (Mother Suu)".
“We hope she can handle the two issues properly.”
