ISTANBUL
The cross-border operation conducted by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) on April 25, 2017 against the terrorist PKK in Syria and Iraq demonstrated how sensitive the political and strategic balances in the region are.
It has been noted that the most significant reason for Turkey to conduct this operation was that the PKK was using these regions to launch or prepare for terrorist acts in Turkey. However, this is probably only one of the reasons for this operation, but a deeper analysis would prove that this is not the sole reason.
Combating terrorism and cross-border operations
In many parts of the world, terrorist organizations are able to organize outside of the countries they operate in.
They do not organize only in regions bordered by the countries they target. Wherever they are able to live and operate, they can somehow organize and engage in financial and training activities in an attempt to gain international legitimacy and recruit more men.
Moreover, even when they lose considerable power in the countries that they terrorize, their organizations in other countries can help maintain their existence.
For this reason, it is generally accepted that the fight against terrorism is not a process that can be overseen only in the target country.
However, the method of the fight can vary. In some cases, in the cross-border stage of the fight against terrorism the military/intelligence dimension stands out, whereas in some others the financial or the diplomatic dimension is more prominent.
In the case of the most advanced examples of counter-terrorism struggle, we find a comprehensive, well-organized and well-planned process that incorporates all of these dimensions.
In the struggle Turkey carries out against the PKK outside its borders, Syria and Iraq are unique examples where almost all of these dimensions are involved in the process.
It is a fact that the PKK has obtained major opportunities in such fields as finding bases, education, training, finance and recruitment owing to the internal political structures of these countries as well as the international context and regional developments.
In the case of Syria, there are ongoing efforts to add the dimension of "international legitimacy" to these fields. Therefore, Turkey's cross-border operation takes on meaning when different aspects of security are considered and not only military requirements.
How the operation was decided
The fight against the PKK inside Turkey has been continuing at full speed. The operations, which were concentrated on a number of city and town centers in the fall of 2015, largely shifted to rural areas as of the second half of 2016.
It was expected that these operations, concentrated on rural areas, would expand in scope come spring. Indeed, this expectation seems to have recently come true.
In response, the PKK's Iraq and Syria legs have been doing their utmost to compensate for the losses they have suffered inside Turkey. In fact, even though the number of the casualties in Turkish security forces has recently been minimized thanks to more effective operations carried out with UAVs, one should not overlook the fact that the PKK has not ceased its efforts to carry out terrorist attacks inside Turkey through infiltrating the border.
However, we should point out that the fight against the PKK is not limited to neutralizing terrorists. In addition, the PKK has seriously increased its efforts to use gray zones in Iraq and Syria particularly given its efforts to engage in financial activities and gain legitimacy as well as laying its hands on more weapons.
Why this latest operation and what makes it necessary?
The first reason can be explained from a more technical and tactical perspective. We see that in the operations carried out in Turkey, Turkish security forces have for a long time been seizing weapons and ammunition that the PKK obtained from Iraq and Syria.
And it has been proved that these infiltrations have been allowed to take place especially on those sections of the Turkish-Syrian border that are controlled by the so-called People's Protection Units (YPG).
More broadly, while consolidating its position in the Iraq-Syria-Turkey triangle, the PKK has literally turned the region into a major line of logistics and supply.
That's why it seems quite unlikely that Turkey could achieve lasting results in its cross-border operations against the PKK by focusing on Iraq alone.
In the last week, there has been a noticeable increase in the air campaigns against camps and various other targets in and around Sinath, Haftanin, Metina, Gara, Kandil, Avashin-Basyan, Zap and Hakurk, which are all in northern Iraq.
However, generally speaking, keeping the military pressure on the PKK confined to a single area did not help to achieve the results desired overall. For this reason, suppressing the PKK also in the regions where it had previously not been targeted may have been considered as a contribution to the process of achieving security.
However, when we take into account the targets hit inside Syria and Iraq, it would be more appropriate to evaluate the issue of providing security in line with the political and diplomatic consequences of this military operation and not merely from a tactical perspective.
The second reason for the operation is that the PKK has now become a strategic player in the north of Syria and the Sinjar region of Iraq.
It is a fact that the PKK has achieved a significant gain as a result of the anti-Daesh cooperation it entered into with the U.S.
Although the U.S. has continually claimed that the organization that is on terror list is the PKK and not the YPG, with which they have been cooperating, anybody who knows about the region knows that this claim is completely meaningless expect at a rhetorical level.
The PKK thinks that the strategic relationship that it entered into with the U.S. through the YPG is providing it with a protective shield. And it has a point indeed in thinking so.
However, the operation carried out yesterday is a sign that this protective shield may actually be very fragile.
There are media reports that the U.S. and Russia had been informed of the operation in advance.
As a matter of fact, the U.S. did not deny this but rather stated that it had not approved of it. What matters at this point is; what Turkey has done is deliver a political message through a military means, one that signals that it will not allow a new fait accompli that the PKK has been trying to create in Syria and Iraq.
The process we have watched so far shows that this operation is a first and will not be the last.
Translated by Ömer Çolakoğlu
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.
