ANALYSIS – ‘Most meaningful progress’ in Russia-Ukraine negotiations: Istanbul meeting

By Prof. Ilyas Kemaloglu who is a lecturer at Marmara University, Department of History.

ISTANBUL

The Ukrainian crisis, which the Russians called a "special operation" and even banned the use of the word "war," while Ukraine and the West called it "the first war in Europe after the Cold War," ignoring the wars in the Balkans, has left a month behind.

What happened in this process not only caused deaths and immigration from both sides but also caused significant changes in many different fields, from economy to defense, from security to energy, all over the world, from Finland to Japan, Canada to Bosnia. While the international organizations, which have been in crisis in recent years, have started to experience their second spring, new blocks have emerged in Europe and the whole world in general. While the change of the routes of natural gas pipelines has been on the agenda for a long time, it has become certain that the first steps will be taken in this direction in the coming years. The food problem that has gained a new dimension is also on the agenda. The double standards applied in approaches to "human tragedies" in the war, which are now understood to concern the whole world, have also come to light.

Why Turkiye?

While the world is witnessing great changes, several countries are trying to solve their own problems by taking advantage of the situation. While Poland is trying to send peacekeepers to Ukraine's west, which it owned until World War II, Japan wants to solve the Kuril Islands problem although it cut off relations with Russia. Only a small part of the countries sincerely strive for peace. One of them is undoubtedly Turkiye. That is why the meeting of the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine on March 10 and the meeting of peace negotiators on March 29 took place in Turkiye.

From the beginning, Ankara has followed an extremely balanced policy, trying to reconcile the parties and pacify the crisis. Turkish officials have been expressing that they have been defending the territorial integrity of Ukraine for years. Both this issue and the cooperation developed with Ukraine in the military field may disturb Moscow. However, it does not harm the multi-faceted cooperation developed with Russia. Because the multi-faceted cooperation between Russia and Turkiye is in the interest of both countries. Also, Ankara is one of the rare countries that do not close its airspace and impose sanctions on Russia. This approach of Turkiye actually ensures the continuation of Russia's connection with the outside world. In other words, Turkiye is the gateway to the world for Russia these days. Because other countries with which Russia maintains relations, especially China and Iran, do not have much contact with the "outside world".

Moscow undoubtedly welcomes the fact that NATO member Turkiye does not participate in the sanctions despite all the pressure and follows an independent policy. Therefore, Turkiye's neutral and pro-peace stance does not go unnoticed by both sides, and Turkiye is seen as the most appropriate place where a cease-fire and peace can be achieved. As a matter of fact, although countries such as Switzerland, Belarus and Israel offered mediation in this process, Moscow and Kyiv did not view these offers positively.

'Most meaningful progress'

The meeting, which was held in Istanbul on March 29 and lasted for more than three hours, is important in terms of establishing peace in the region. Because the meeting constituted the beginning of a new process. Factors such as the parties' decision to meet again in Turkiye not long after the meeting in Antalya, the opening of the meeting was made by Turkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the parties expressed that there is no point in coming together if there is no result, Russia could not get the desired result in the planned time, and Ukraine's failure to find the support it trusts from the West indicated that some concrete results would emerge from the meeting in Istanbul. As a matter of fact, as Turkiye's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, the most meaningful progress since the start of the negotiations was made at the Istanbul meeting.

According to the statement made after the meeting, the Ukrainian side made a written offer to Russia at the meeting. Ukraine asked for an international security guarantee in exchange for having neutral status and not joining military blocs. Also, the Ukrainian authorities assured that foreign countries would not have military bases in the country and asked Russia not to oppose Ukraine's EU membership. In addition, it was proposed to start the negotiations on Crimea after the final cease-fire and extend it to 15 years and reach an agreement on the Donetsk and Luhansk issues at the summit to be held between the heads of state. The text of the agreement, which the parties will agree on, will also be submitted for the approval of the Ukrainian people.

The Russian authorities evaluated this proposal of Ukraine as a constructive step and welcomed it, and in return, they announced that they would reduce military activities in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv. It was also announced that the Putin-Zelenskyy meeting could be held when the foreign ministers are ready to sign the agreement. Undoubtedly, it will take time for all of this to materialize. Because the Russian authorities will present these proposals of Ukraine to the president of Russia, and Moscow will give its official answer after.

Two major obstacles to peace

As can be understood from the statements, the parties are ready for mutual concessions. However, it must be said that the agreement will not be easy. Because although Ukraine's offers received a "positive" response in Russia, it does not seem possible for the Kremlin to give up on Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Even the authorities of Luhansk and Donetsk have brought up the issue of the possibility of joining Russia these days. Therefore, in the proposal submitted by the Ukrainian authorities to the Russian side, it is important to extend the resolution of the Crimean issue to 15 years and to delay the Luhansk and Donetsk issues a little (later to be discussed by the presidents), at least in terms of achieving a cease-fire. Moreover, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants to share the responsibility with the people of Ukraine by submitting the entire text of the agreement to the vote in a referendum.

The second important issue that will affect the course of the talks from now on is the approach of the Western countries. Does the West, which has provided so much military aid to Ukraine, severed ties with Russia in all areas, and even suffered greatly from the sanctions imposed on Russia, want the Slavic brothers to reconcile? How will US President Joe Biden, who made heavy accusations against Vladimir Putin, be the guarantor country? Will the Kremlin accept this? The answers to all these will be given by the statement from the Kremlin and the attitude of the Western countries afterward.

Despite these two important factors in front of peace, the talks between the parties will continue. It seems that Turkiye has an important role to play in this process. It is of great importance that the negotiations continue in Turkiye in order to ensure peace as soon as possible after the cease-fire. Likewise, it is important that Turkiye is among the guarantor countries in the list given by the Ukrainian authorities to the Russian side. Moreover, after the meeting in Antalya, Ankara has become a bridge not only between Russia and Ukraine but also between Russia and the West. As a matter of fact, great hopes are pinned on Turkiye for the solution of the problem in Europe.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the Anadolu Agency.

*Writing by Seda Sevencan