OPINION - Adapting to the unknown: US foreign policy in the shadow of Trump's possible return

The author is a researcher at TRT World Research Center based in Istanbul, Türkiye.

ISTANBUL

As the United States shifts its attention towards a potential rematch between US President Joe Biden and former US President Donald Trump, speculation about the former president's return to the Oval Office is triggering inquiries into the course of US foreign policy. Beyond pondering the implications of a prospective new Trump administration, it is equally important to assess how the current government or establishment is strategizing for the possibility of Trump's return to power.

2 foreign policy extremes

Following his win in the 2016 elections, many within the establishment hoped that Trump would gradually recognize the gravity of his newfound role and adopt a more presidential demeanor. They anticipated that under the influence of "pragmatic Republicans," he would temper his approach to governance, ensuring the nation remained on a stable course without veering too far off-track. However, Trump displayed an aggressive attitude that departed from traditional Republican norms.

The former president's foreign policy approach, dubbed the "America First" doctrine, significantly diverged from traditional US policies. Trump prioritized US interests over multilateral commitments and alliances. During his presidency, he renegotiated or withdrew from international agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris climate accord. He described the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as the worst trade deal signed by the US and promised to renegotiate it. Additionally, he characterized NATO as obsolete, calling on NATO countries to finance their defense expenditures and fulfill their obligations.

Paradoxically, Trump used confrontational rhetoric with traditional allies like NATO members while adopting a conciliatory tone towards countries like North Korea and Russia. Meanwhile, he threatened to terminate US participation in the World Health Organization (WHO), and withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, bringing more instability to Washington's relationship with Europe. The Democrats' main criticism was that Trump was leading the country towards greater isolation and eroding its role as a global leader.

In contrast, under the Biden administration, the US has pursued a more strategic approach to international relations. By entangling Russia in the conflict in Ukraine, it has not only weakened its adversary economically but also reshaped global perceptions of Russia's military capabilities. NATO has experienced a resurgence, expanding its reach, and the "Russia crisis" in Europe, coupled with the Ukrainian conflict, has bolstered America's leadership among its allies. This underscores the importance and strength of the Western alliance, with the US at its helm. Additionally, the policy of ensnaring Russia in Ukraine mirrors a similar strategy aimed at containing China in Taiwan, fostering diplomatic and strategic containment efforts in the Indo-Pacific region.

Is international politics preparing for another Trump era?

In this context, the 2024 presidential election hold critical importance for the future of US foreign policy. If Trump is reelected, there are serious concerns about potential abrupt changes in policy direction under his administration, which could possibly destabilize the world order.

In the event of a hypothetical return to power by Trump, Kyiv may receive diminished support, with Europe taking on a greater role in aiding Ukraine's defense and recovery efforts. A more stringent approach toward China, potentially involving increased tariffs and trade limitations, would likely be implemented, with a hands-off approach to any potential Chinese intervention in Taiwan. Israel might see expanded operational freedom in the Middle East. Additionally, there could be a shift towards direct military measures against cartels in Mexico, a focus of Trump's previous policies.

Undoubtedly, within Washington's policy circles once branded "the swamp" by Trump himself, discussions of these potential scenarios are likely underway. As a precaution against the prospect of a Trump return to power, the US foreign policy establishment is actively strategizing to address potential challenges. Institutions like the State Department, the National Security Council, and the Defense Department are engaging in scenario planning exercises to evaluate the potential ramifications of various policy outcomes in a hypothetical Trump administration. However, legally, the Biden administration may face obstacles in curbing Trump's policy pursuits following a potential electoral defeat, particularly if the House of Representatives stays in Republican hands after the election.

Last year, Congress passed a bill preventing any president from independently withdrawing the US from NATO, potentially serving as a constraint on Trump. However, examining recent actions from Congress and the Biden administration, there's no specific legislation directly curbing Trump's foreign policy. Legal avenues to counter Trump have proven uncertain, with measures such as blocking his candidacy appearing less than effective.

The most tangible aspect highlighted in the current situation is the Biden administration's continued support for Ukraine, ensuring that Kyiv's hand is strengthened against Russia before an eventual Trump era. Under a pending $95 billion package, some $60 billion would be allocated to Ukraine.

Given Trump's foreign policy stance, it's conceivable that not just the US establishment but also other nations have adjusted their policies accordingly. French President Emmanuel Macron's heightened focus on the Ukraine conflict and incidents like the recent terrorist attack in Moscow should be viewed in conjunction, as they carry significance in anticipating potential shifts in the global order.

As the election results unfold on Nov. 5 and likely the days afterwards, the resilience and adaptability of US foreign policy institutions will undergo scrutiny, potentially shaping the trajectory of international relations for years to come.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.