- Analysts say their policies are driven by strategic autonomy and energy security concerns
- Conflict will push the region to search for alternative suppliers and diversified energy sources, say experts
ISTANBUL
Though thousands of miles away from the raging conflict in the Middle East, major Asian nations are treading cautiously as the closure of a key strait in the region impacts energy supplies at home.
China, South Korea, Japan, and India are major importers of energy from Gulf nations as well as Iran.
Yet soon after the US and Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Tehran, taking the lives of then-Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei along with some 1,300 others, Asian capitals stayed cautious in their reactions.
“The policies of Asian nations demonstrate that energy security and strategic autonomy typically take precedence over other considerations,” said Chien-yu Shih, an associate research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
He added that legal principles “are primarily expressed through diplomatic rhetoric rather than coercive actions.”
In its first reaction to the joint US-Israeli bombardment of Iran, Beijing said it was “highly concerned.”
Japan, India, and South Korea all issued similar statements, expressing concerns over escalation and urging restraint.
“Japan depends on the US for security and the Middle East for energy. That dual dependence explains why Tokyo’s response will emphasize restraint, diplomacy, and stability rather than taking sides publicly,” Nancy Snow, an advisor to the International Security Industry Council Japan, told Anadolu.
According to Kazuto Suzuki, an academic and expert on economic security at the Tokyo-based Institute of Geoeconomics, the issue of energy supplies is a top priority for Japan.
“We are not talking about who's right, who's wrong. The government's official position is to make sure that the conflict will be resolved peacefully and through diplomatic means,” Suzuki told Anadolu.
Same issue, different positions
While these nations’ energy dependence on the Middle East is the same, their positions differ.
Experts say it will be very difficult for Japan, China, and South Korea to coordinate their responses to an energy crisis.
There is a “long-time conflict” between Japan and China, said Suzuki, making it seem “unrealistic to assume that the three countries (will) work together.”
But Seoul and Tokyo are also major allies of the US in the wider Asia-Pacific region, and their coordination matters.
As Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, the International Energy Agency coordinated an agreement among 32 nations to release some 400 million barrels of their strategic oil reserves – the largest release ever.
According to the University of Exeter’s Andrea Ghiselli, who specializes in Chinese foreign policy, Beijing “is in a much better position than” Japan and South Korea.
China imports 50% of its oil from the Middle East but for Japan and South Korea, this figure goes up to 90%.
“They are in a much tighter place in comparison with China,” Ghiselli, also project manager at the Turin-based ChinaMed Project, told Anadolu.
They are in “very different positions,” he said, “not just in the energy market, but also their relations with the US.”
He said while China does “not really need” to coordinate with the US, Japan and South Korea “are in a very different situation.”
Whether Seoul and Tokyo can leverage their ties with Washington remains to be seen.
“Japan avoids publicly criticizing the US on major security matters due to the centrality of the US-Japan alliance,” said Snow, an expert on Japanese foreign policy. “At the same time, Tokyo also maintains a long history of diplomatic engagement with Iran. As a result, Japan adopts a carefully balanced position. It can express concern about escalation while avoiding direct condemnation of either side.”
Shih, the Taiwanese scholar, said China’s “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Iran is not a military alliance but a close economic, trade, and security-driven partnership.
“China procures energy from multiple Middle Eastern countries while positioning itself as a neutral mediator,” he said.
During his intense phone diplomacy amid the ongoing conflict, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has stressed that all sides should cease military operations, without directly condemning anyone.
He has insisted that China opposes actions which violate international law, and the sovereignty and security of nations.
Suzuki, the Japanese academic, does not think Tokyo can play the role of mediator.
“Because we don't have leverage with either Israel or the US,” he said. “None of the Asian countries … China, South Korea, Japan have leverage with Israel.”
Mideast crisis exposes vulnerabilities in Asia
Shih emphasized that the moves made by major Asian nations so far “reveal the region's structural vulnerabilities.”
Asia consumes vast quantities of oil yet produces relatively little, with approximately 60% or more of crude imports originating from the Middle East.
“This makes the region highly exposed to the risk of disruptions to infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf region,” he said.
And the immediate response “is to activate strategic petroleum reserves and supply buffer mechanisms” which can sustain operations for three to six months at most, said Shih.
Japan has one of the largest strategic petroleum reserves in the world, an amount which can typically equal roughly 200-240 days of net oil imports under normal consumption levels.
“This buffer allows Japan significant short-term resilience, though it is not a long-term substitute for Middle Eastern supply,” said Snow.
Analysts say the latest conflict in the Middle East will push regional nations to search for alternative suppliers and diversified energy sources.
According to Shih, imports from the US, Latin America, and even Australia could be explored, while regions like Taiwan “must accelerate the restart of nuclear power plants to partially reduce its dependence on oil and natural gas.”
Ghiselli agreed that the Middle East conflict will give a “new push” to all countries to improve their energy security, diversification, as well as electrification of their economies.
“At the same time, there will be a general hope for the US to bring this war to an end … and of course it also depends on Iran.”
