Vakkas Dogantekin
19 March 2020•Update: 20 March 2020
ANKARA
A nuclear war between India and Pakistan would significantly impact global food security, according to nearly 20 scientists who analyzed the outcome of a potential nuclear standoff between the South Asian neighbors.
The research, published in the official journal of the U.S.’ National Academy of Sciences, revealed "the impacts of such low-likelihood but severe events … to inform the public and policy makers”.
“A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg [teragram] of soot into the stratosphere,” said the article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday.
“Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y [years]."
Evaluating potential impacts on the global food system, scientists calculated that “global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)%” over a five-year period.
“Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions,” the report said.
The research suggested that “domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year” but “persistent multiyear losses … would constrain domestic food availability,” particularly in food-insecure countries.
“By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people,” the report added.
The scientists drew attention to the “increasing instability in South Asia”, and warned that “a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.”
Long-fraught relations between the two nuclear rivals brought them to the brink of war in 2019, after India scrapped the special provisions of the state of Jammu and Kashmir.
India and Pakistan both hold Kashmir in parts but claim it in full. China also controls part of the contested region, but it is India and Pakistan who have fought two conventional wars over the territory.
