Ekip
17 October 2015•Update: 17 October 2015
By Lauren Crothers
PHNOM PENH, Cambodia
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s eldest son, a Royal Armed Forces lieutenant general, has given a televised interview in which he says “not no, not yes” to the prospect of taking over from his father.
Hun Sen, a 63-year-old former Khmer Rouge battalion deputy commander, has ruled Cambodia for 30 years and shows no signs of giving up that grip on power. However, analysts have said that he has been shaping up a strong and secure line of dynastic succession in order to ensure that his legacy lives on.
Hun Manet, a 37-year-old who has for years been widely tipped to be his father’s successor, has denied having been groomed for the position – a response over which an analyst expressed doubt Saturday.
“Cambodia is a multiparty democracy. The Constitution dictates that we have an election every five years,” Manet told Australia’s ABC News 24 in an interview Friday. “So the choice — the decisions of who and when to be leader is up to the people of Cambodia.”
Asked if he would carry the mantle once Hun Sen’s rule is over, for whatever reason, Manet said again that comes down to the wishes and desires of the Cambodian people. “The answer is, I don’t know.”
“Our father has stated many times that he doesn’t want his children to follow in politics,” Manet said, adding that “what I’ve done in the past is purely for a humanitarian basis,” not with political ambition in mind.
Asked again later in the 6-minute interview if he would step up if the people do desire it, he said: “Not no, not yes.”
But the feeling among Cambodia watchers and political analysts is that Manet is indeed the likeliest candidate to take the reins from Hun Sen, whose other children also occupy important and influential positions.
Manet is followed by daughter Hun Mana, who heads up the pro-government Bayon TV channel. The next sons are Hun Manith, a Royal Armed Forces brigadier general, and Hun Many — who failed to garner enough votes as a ruling CPP candidate to earn a seat in the National Assembly in the 2013 election, only to have a path cleared for him when an older parliamentarian retired.
Three months before the 2013 elections, The Cambodia Daily reported on a speech delivered by Hun Sen in Kompong Cham province, during which he described having seen a supernatural flash of light that flew out of a Banyan tree near the house where his wife, Bun Rany, was giving birth to Manet in 1978.
He said Manet “may be the child” of that spirit.
According to political analyst Ou Virak, founder of the Future Forum research body, Manet has been carefully groomed, the interview on Australian television was a strategic move, and the way he answered the volley of questions about his potential as successor was deliberate.
“I think he tried not to say yes [outright], but for a politician, that is as close to a yes as you can get — particularly for a young son of long-term strongman,” Virak told Anadolu Agency on Saturday. “I am a bit surprised that he’s not rejecting that kind of notion a bit more forcefully, so in that sense, I think he doesn’t want the public to start to wonder about that prospect.”
On the world stage, he does differ from his father, who does not give interviews. Manet, who was educated in the U.S.’ West Point military academy, has also lived in the UK and speaks, reads and writes English fluently.
“He understands political satire, which is something the old guard of the CPP wouldn’t understand,” Virak said.
Still, it would be some time before Cambodia sees the last of Hun Sen, he said, because it would still be a “huge risk” to change things up and have Hun Sen take a step back in order to present his son as the country’s next potential leader.
“Manet might play major role, but Hun Sen’s ego will never let it go. He can’t walk away being seen as weakened. I can see him retiring, but I see him making all the moves according to his time and his version of things first.”
