ISLAMABAD, Pakistan/ISTANBUL
Asserting “unity,” Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) declared it will remain in power for four more years after its candidate, sitting Vice President William Lai Ching-te, won Saturday’s presidential election.
This got the party a third consecutive term at the helm of the government — unprecedented since 1996, when direct presidential elections were first held in Taiwan.
Lai Ching-te, 64, won with around 40.5% of ballots in the presidential race with a turnout of 69.24%. This was out of roughly 19 million registered voters on the more than 23-million-strong island, sitting across the Taiwan Strait, south of mainland China.
Lai’s opponent, Hou Yu-ih, of the main opposition Kuomintang (Nationalist) and Ko Wen-je of Taiwan People's Party (TPP) conceded even as thousands of votes remained to be counted.
Hou and Ko won 33.46% and 26.44% votes, respectively, with a surprisingly vast margin for the newly-founded TPP.
The results also revealed a divided Legislative Yuan, or assembly, where the DPP lost 10 seats and its majority, something observers see as a hurdle for the incoming Lai administration.
It is first time since 2004 that no party won a clear majority in the assembly of 113 seats.
Lai will assume the top post in May when the two-term tenure of incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen ends.
“The country will continue to walk on the right path forward. We will not turn around or look backwards,” Lai said in victory speech at the party’s headquarters in Taipei. “We won.”
Hsiao Bi-khim, 52, Taiwan’s former representative in the US, will succeed Lai as vice president.
A Harvard-educated former physician, Lai promised transparency, inclusiveness and cooperation during his time in office.
He comes from Wanli, a rural coastal town in northern Taipei County, now New Taipei City, where he was born on Oct. 6, 1959, a decade after the Communist Party of China (CPC) founded its rule on the mainland.
He was 2 when his father, a miner, died of carbon monoxide poisoning at a mine in Wanli. His mother raised him and his five siblings alone.
Married in 1986, Lai has two children with his wife, Wu Mei-ju.
Before beginning his studies at the Harvard School of Public Health in the US, Lai studied at National Cheng Kung University and National Taiwan University in the capital Taipei.
Before President Tsai, who was first elected in 2016, tapped him as vice president in 2020, Lai won Legislative Assembly elections in 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004 and 2008. During Tsai’s tenure, US defense support for Taiwan rose significantly.
He also served twice as mayor of southern Tainan city.
In her first term as president, Tsai picked Lai as prime minister in 2017, the position her successor served for two years until 2019.
What does Lai’s win mean for cross-Strait relations?
Observers expect the current tense status quo to continue between China and Taiwan, with low chances of any dialogue with Beijing, which of sees the DPP as a pro-independence party.
Dialogue snapped by Beijing after the DPP came to power.
“Mr. Lai, the Taiwanese independence faction within the Democratic Progressive Party, has won the presidency for the first time and will face harsher treatment from Beijing in the next four years,” Taiwan-based China observer and academic Chienyu Shih told Anadolu from Taipei.
Washington has said it plans to send an “unofficial delegation to Taipei” soon after Saturday’s elections, which drew protest from Beijing.
If the world’s top economies do not “find a way to compromise,” Chienyu, who is a Research Fellow at Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said, military confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region may worsen and competition may become “increasingly obvious.”
Lai, however, reassured supporters that he would observe his “important responsibility to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”
“We will use exchanges to replace obstructionism, dialogue to replace confrontation, and confidently pursue exchanges and cooperation with China,” Lai said after the victory.
Ahead of Taiwan polls, Beijing reiterated its stance that “regardless of results, Taiwan belongs to China.”
“For Taiwan, deterring China from using force to invade Taiwan has become very complicated and critical,” added Chienyu.
Lev Nachman, a political scientist who teaches at the National Chengchi University in Taipei, said Lai's victory “won't lead to conflict ... It will lead to more of the same status-quo that we know. Even if that status-quo is not ideal.”
With no de-escalation in any near future, Nachman wrote on X that the days after the election “will be critical to see the PRC's reaction.”
PRC, or the People’s Republic of China, is the official name of China.
A day ahead of the weekend polls, the Chinese military warned it will “crush” any efforts toward independence of the island nation, which Beijing has said will reunify with mainland even if with use of force.
Lai’s domestic challenges
Domestically, the polls have also added to the challenges faced by Lai, who will have to contend with a divided legislature.
According to official results, the DPP took 51, Kuomintang 52, and TPP eight seats, respectively.
With about 40% of the vote, Chienyu said as a minority president, Lai is likely to “encounter difficulties” at the beginning of his administration.
With no majority in the assembly, the DPP will likely face boycotts by opposition parties as it grapples with domestic affairs.
Acknowledging the upcoming challenges, Lai told a news conference that he is ready incorporate policies of his opponents into his own if they benefit Taiwanese people.
Tsai addressed party supporters after the election victory and insisted on “unity” among all Taiwanese people.
Nachman’s assessment was similar to Chienyu’s.
“Lai's biggest and most immediate challenge will be the Legislative Yuan,” he said.
“After a very intense and divisive election cycle, he needs to bring elected officials together. That’s tough, because the KMT is not likely to play along, and the TPP will work with the highest bidder,” said Nachman.
“Even though Lai won the presidency, without the Legislative Yuan, expect a slow, unproductive four years. Lai will be in a very difficult position, especially because he won with less than 50% and the DPP lost their majority” in the assembly, the political scientist noted.
