ISTANBUL
Alarmingly shrinking fertility rates are triggering demographic crises in several countries in East and Southeast Asia with increasingly aging populations and dwindling workforces.
South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and the island nation of Taiwan are among the five countries with the world’s lowest birthrates, according to a 2023 CIA report.
The situation is no different in regional giants such as China and Japan, where dwindling populations have pushed governments to offer incentives and come up with policies specifically aimed at boosting birthrates.
The global total fertility rate has halved from about 5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 children per woman in 2021, according to a study published in The Lancet in May.
The study warned that fertility rates in almost every country would be so low that their populations would have started shrinking by the year 2100.
Higher incomes, rising education levels, larger participation of women in the workforce, and a modified view on family settings are seen as key reasons for the global decline in birthrates.
On the flip side, easier and improved healthcare access, along with improved living standards, are increasing life expectancies.
Factors such as expensive housing, long working hours, and high education costs are major factors behind a growing unwillingness to get married or have children.
- China
China’s population dropped for a second consecutive year in 2023, after it started shrinking in 2022 for the first time in six decades.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the birthrate hit a new low last year, while the death rate spike to a level not seen in more than 50 years.
In 2023, the population of mainland China fell by 2.08 million, a much bigger drop than 850,000 in 2022.
The number of babies born last year was 9.02 million, down by 5.6% from 9.56 million in 2022.
China has witnessed a steep plunge in fertility rates, from 6.0 in the 1970s to a historic low, and now at 1.7 births per woman in 2024.
In 2016, China relaxed restrictions and allowed couples to have a second child, marking an end to the “one-child policy” enforced since the late 1970s.
In 2021, the government allowed couples to have as many as three children.
According to UN estimates, China’s population could decrease to 1.313 billion by 2050 and fall below 800 million by 2100, while people over age 60 are projected to make up over 40% of the total population by 2050.
China’s working-age population — those between ages 16 to 59 – saw a decrease of 0.5% at the end of 2022, totaling over 875.5 million people.
To meet the market demand, Beijing this month approved a plan to gradually raise the retirement age for public workers, a first since the 1950s.
- Japan
In June 2024, Japan, the world’s fastest-aging nation, had its lowest fertility rate since records began in 1947.
Japan’s total elderly population, age 65 and above, was recorded at 36.25 million people, with 25.2% still working.
The Health Ministry’s 2023 statistics showed that the fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.20 children per woman.
Japan’s population decreased from 122.42 million in 2022 to 121.56 million in 2023, according to official figures, marking the 15th consecutive year of decline and the largest drop since surveys began in 1968.
The country has brought new legislation to boost child support measures, including scrapping a previous income limit to be eligible to for child allowance and other incentives.
- South Korea
In June, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol declared a “demographic national emergency” in the country.
South Korea’s total fertility rate – the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime – fell to a low of 0.72 in 2023, well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain the country’s population at 51 million.
According to the study published in The Lancet, South Korea will have a fertility rate of 0.82 by 2050, placing it on the list of 10 countries expected to have the lowest fertility rates by the middle and end of this century.
The marriage rate in the country fell to 5.5%, while 19.5% of the population is over age 65 – around 10 million from the total of over 51.6 million.
According to official statistics, South Korea is in danger of becoming a “super-aged” society as the population over 65 is projected to reach 18.86 million, or 40.8%, by 2052.
To address the problem, the country has introduced multiple incentives such as an increase in parental leave allowances, more flexible work hours, and incentives such as childcare, after-school programs, and tax subsidies.
- North Korea
Last December, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reportedly urged women to have more children, calling for collective efforts to address the country’s declining birthrates.
According to the UN Population Fund, the fertility rate in North Korea as of 2023 had declined to 1.8 children per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1.
A study by The Lowy Institute projected that North Korea’s working-age population, between ages 15 and 64, could begin falling in the years leading up to 2030.
- Taiwan and Hong Kong
Taiwan, dubbed an “aging society,” has seen a decrease in fertility rates from 7 births per woman in 1951 to 0.87 in 2022.
The National Development Council of the island nation, which China claims as a breakaway province, has forecast that Taiwan would become one of the oldest societies in the world by 2060, when its elderly population could increase to 41.4%.
Hong Kong, a special administrative region of China and an urban economic hub, has also seen declining fertility rates over the past three decades.
According to official figures, the fertility rate declined from 1.28 in 2012 to 0.7 in 2022.
The World Health Organization estimates that Hong Kong’s population over 65 could reach 40% by 2050, while its labor force is forecast to shrink from 57.2% in 2021 to 51.6 % by 2046.
- Singapore and Thailand
Thailand’s fertility rate had fallen from 6.29 in 1970 to 1.08 in 2023, according to official figures.
The National Economic Council of Thailand has also projected a drop in the working-age population from about 66% in 2017 to 56.8% in 2037.
In March, a senior government official said current trends could lead to the Thai population being halved from 66 million to 33 million in 60 years.
Singapore’s fertility rate fell to a historic low of 0.97 in 2023, dropping below 1.0 for the first time.
A total of 33,541 babies were born in Singapore in 2023, a 5.8% decline from 35,605 in 2022, according to local daily The Straits Times.
Conversely, the number of deaths has been steadily climbing over the past decade, with a total of 26,888 recorded in 2023, 10.7% higher than 24,292 in 2021.
People over age 65 made up 17.3% of Singapore’s total population in 2023, according to official figures.
