30 January 2019•Update: 31 January 2019
By Riyaz ul Khaliq
ANKARA
A U.S. intelligence report has claimed challenges facing South Asia will grow in 2019 because of elections in India and Afghanistan and Pakistan’s “non-cooperation” in dealing with militant groups.
World Threat Assessment report by the U.S. Directorate of National Intelligence noted Taliban’s large-scale attacks and risk of communal violence during Indian elections will further the tensions.
Dan Coats, Director of U.S. National Intelligence, presented the 42-page report to the U.S. Senate committee Tuesday.
“We judge that cross-border terrorism, firing across the Line of Control (LoC), divisive national elections in India, and Islamabad’s perception of its position with the United States relative to India will contribute to strained India-Pakistan relations at least through May 2019, the deadline for the Indian election, and probably beyond,” said the report.
It said despite limited confidence-building measures -- such as both countries recommitting in May 2018 to the 2003 cease-fire along the disputed Kashmir border -- “continued terrorist attacks and cross-border firing in Kashmir have hardened each country’s position and reduced their political will to seek rapprochement.
“Political maneuvering resulting from the Indian national elections probably will further constrain near-term opportunities for improving ties,” the report observed.
The report raised concern about “continued growth and development” of Pakistan and India’s nuclear weapons programs saying it will “increase the risk of a nuclear security incident” in the region.
It also mentions Pakistan’s “new types” of nuclear weapons, including short-range tactical weapons, sea-based cruise missiles, air-launched cruise missiles longer-range ballistic missiles.
India, this year, conducted its first deployment of a nuclear-powered submarine armed with nuclear missiles.
On Afghanistan, the report said neither the Afghan government nor the Taliban “will be able to gain a strategic military advantage” in the Afghan war in the coming year “if coalition support remains at current levels”.
The report noted Islamist groups will “expand” in India if the current regime policies continue in the country.
“The elections in India increase the possibility of communal violence if Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stresses Hindu nationalist themes,” it said.
“BJP policies during Modi’s first term have deepened communal tensions in some BJP-governed states, and Hindu nationalist state leaders might view a Hindu-nationalist campaign as a signal to incite low-level violence to animate their supporters. Increasing communal clashes could alienate Indian Muslims and allow Islamist terrorist groups in India to expand their influence,” the report added.
