Fitch revises up 2023 global growth forecast to 2.4% from 2%

ISTANBUL

Fitch Ratings revised up its global economic growth forecast for this year to 2.4%, from its previous projection of 2%.

"The biggest upgrades have been to emerging markets (EM) where incoming data have been a lot stronger than expected," it said in the Global Economic Outlook report released Wednesday.

The growth estimate for emerging markets, excluding China, was revised up to 2.9% from 2% with Brazil, India, Mexico, and Russia seeing "substantive improvements."

China’s growth expectation was revised up to 5.6%, from 5.2%, after its economy reopening in the first quarter of 2023 was "swifter-than-expected."

The US economy's growth forecast was also revised up, to 1.2% from 1%, as consumption and job growth remain robust.

The rating agency, however, noted it still expects the US Federal Reserve's monetary tightening to push the American economy into a mild recession, but its timing has been pushed to the period between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.

Eurozone's growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 were kept unchanged.

Fitch, on the other hand, lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.1%, from 2.4%, "due to longer lags in the impact of higher interest rates, along with weaker base effects for EM growth."

The agency said world economic growth should pick up in 2025 due to an easing in monetary policies next year.

While Fitch kept the Turkish economy's growth estimates unchanged at 2.5% and 3% for 2023 and 2024, respectively, it expects Türkiye's economy to expand by 3.8% in 2025.