Global trade expected to return to growth in 2024

ANKARA

Global merchandise trade is expected to return to growth this year following a steeper than expected contraction due to high energy prices and inflation in 2023, according to a World Trade Organization (WTO) report released on Wednesday.

World merchandise trade volume will grow 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, after having decreased 1.2% last year, the WTO projected in its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report.

However, it warned that the regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions which spur food and energy prices up, as well as economic policy uncertainty, pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.

Africa's exports are expected to increase faster than any other region this year, by 5.3%; however, this is from a low base.

The WTO estimates global GDP growth at market exchange rates to remain mostly stable at 2.6% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, after slowing to 2.7% in 2023 from 3.1% in 2022.

In 2024 and 2025, inflation is expected to gradually abate, allowing real incomes to grow again in advanced economies, boosting consumption of manufactured goods, read the report.