Global trade to hit record $33T in 2024

ANKARA

Global trade is set to hit a historic $33 trillion in 2024, posting a 3.3% annual growth, according to the latest Global Trade Update by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released on Thursday.

The robust growth in services trade, which surged by 7% this year, was a key driver, contributing $500 billion, or half of the total hike.

Goods trade grew by just 2% and remained below its 2022 peak.

This divergence reflects a global shift toward digital and knowledge-based industries, as services like information and communication technology (ICT) and finance play an increasingly dominant role in trade dynamics.

Both sectors saw trade values rise in the third quarter, with momentum expected to carry into the year’s final quarter, read the report.

While developed economies drove growth in the third quarter of 2024, imports and exports increased by 3% and 2%, respectively.

Japan led the way, with a 5% increase in goods exports for the quarter and a 13% annual hike in services exports.

The US saw merchandise imports climb 4% both quarterly and annually, with exports increasing 2% year-on-year and 1% in the quarter.

In contrast, developing economies faced headwinds. Their overall imports contracted by 1%, and South-South trade—a critical component of their economic resilience—also fell by 1% in July-September.

China’s goods trade weakened, with a 1% drop in imports and a 2% decline in exports in July-September. Services trade, however, remained a bright spot as exports grew 9% quarterly and annually, while imports rose 17% year-over-year.

India also had mixed results. Its goods imports and exports fell by 1% and 3%, respectively, during the quarter, but annual figures showed a 4% increase in imports and a 2% rise in exports.

India's services trade expanded modestly, with imports and exports up 1% quarterly.

The ICT and apparel trade posted impressive gains of 13% and 14%, respectively, in the third quarter, presenting a significant opportunity for developing nations to diversify their economies and move into higher-value industries.

Traditional trade sectors, on the other hand, faced declines. Energy trade fell 2% in the third quarter, led by reduced demand and price volatility. Metals trade also contracted by 3%, reflecting slowing industrial demand. Automotive trade dipped by 3% in the three months to September but is expected to recover with modest annual growth of 4%.