By Magda Panoutsopoulou
ATHENS, Greece
Greece will not go back to the drachma, nor will Greece leave the euro under any circumstances, Greek financial analyst George Kesarios told Anadolu Agency on Friday.
"We will not leave the euro. I've been saying this since 2010," Kesarios, who is a columnist for the largest Greek financial portal, capital.gr, insisted.
"However, if we do go back to the drachma, then the country will be impoverished by 70 percent. In a very short time, our standard of living will fall by around 70 percent from its current level."
Kesarios warned that, in case of default by the end of June, there would be a very bad scenario.
"The bad scenario would be that, if there is no deal with the partners, sooner or later we will have a suspension on payments and pensions in the public sector, and of course very possibly have banks close down for a few days…that is a very bad scenario," he said.
"I am less worried about our not paying our June 30 installment to the International Monetary Fund, much more if this suspension of payments happens," he said.
Should there be a suspension of payments, banks will close down, Kesarios continued.
"Then people will get angry and this government will go down, we will then inevitably go to snap elections and we will have a government that will be able to sign a deal so that we can go on with our lives because if we continue to have this government, the damage will be so great that we won’t be able to repair it," Kesarios said.
Even if Greece signs a bailout deal, the current government won't respect the conditions, Kesarios predicted.
"With a deal in place, and more financing of the Greek economy, the most possible scenario is that there might not be any more money in the banks. It is a possibility. I am not saying it will happen but it is a possibility," Kesarios added.
"Now the other thing is that, if trust in the Greek economy is not regained in a month or two, and we continue to have this high level of withdrawal of funds from the banking system, we will reach a point where the ECB will not be able to give us more emergency aid," he said.
Greek banks are currently dependent on emergency loans from the European Central Bank to continue operations. But if the banks reach a point where the ECB no longer considers them healthy, the banks will not be eligible for further loans.
"A certain level of trust has to be re-established if the banking system is to survive," Kesarios commented.
