La Nina weather phase fuels concerns in commodity markets

ISTANBUL

The La Nina weather phase has fueled concerns in commodity markets since it is estimated to create disruption and volatility.

La Nina is expected to begin at the end of summer, following the El Nino phase, according to estimates by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The El Nino weather phase is characterized by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the in the eastern Pacific Ocean coast and above-usual atmospheric pressure that span across the western and the central Pacific.

El Nino, which can occur every two to seven years, started in June last year and ended in April 2024.

The La Nina phase manifests as the opposite of El Nino, as regions that get hotter during El Nino cool down during La Nina, since the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean stays below minus 0.5 degrees Celsius for three months.

Agriculture group to be most affected

The agricultural group of commodities will be most affected in La Nina, as more rainfall in Brazil could increase soybean production and pull prices downwards, but the risk of an excessive rainfall could lead to floods, thereby damaging crops and disrupting logistics.

Increased rice and palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia can also influence their prices downwards.

Drier weather conditions are expected to be more prominent in southern US, negatively impacting wheat and cotton production, while the country’s soybean production is expected to increase in the Midwest.

Meanwhile, the global metal markets, mining and transportation activities in East Asia, Africa, and Australia are estimated to suffer from disruptions due to rainfall and flooding.

La Nina to impact parts of world differently

Zafer Ergezen, futures and commodity markets expert, told Anadolu that slightly milder climate will be seen with the start of La Nina, as temperatures will decrease, but the effects of this weather phase will be different.

“While a milder and wetter weather will be more prominent in northern US, a relatively drier weather will manifest in the center and the south. Similarly, Brazil will see a relatively wetter weather in the north and hotter in the south, while Europe will see milder weather in the north,” said Ergezen.

Ergezen noted that Indonesia and the Philippines will see wetter weather during La Nina, which can result in relatively high yields in agricultural commodities, while monsoons will increase in India, which is significant for commodities traded in Brazil, China, and East Asia.

He mentioned that hot and rainy weather in parts of Brazil could result in fluctuations in coffee and sugar prices, while wheat and corn production may go down in the US due to rain in the north and dry weather in the south.

“La Nina signals a period of relatively higher yields in Vietnam and India, which are important for coffee, sugar, cotton, and rice production, which is why we may see continued pressure on the prices of these commodities for a while,” he said.

Ergezen said the world this year is expecting to see some of the biggest hurricanes in about a decade.

“While northern Brazil will have relatively wetter weather and Central America will be drier than before, we see this as an intersection, from where the sizes of hurricanes and typhoons will increase, impacting oil prices, all the while causing freight and container prices to climb as transit through the Panama Canal will be with problems,” he added.

*Writing by Emir Yildirim