By Andrew Jay Rosenbaum
ANKARA
Credit agency Moody's on Tuesday warned of slower global economic growth.
In its quarterly report, Moody's forecast growth would be “muted” over the next two years. The agency maintained its baseline forecast for GDP growth in G20 nations at 2.7 percent this year, rising to around 3 percent in 2016.
This compares with last year’s 2.9 percent growth, the report said.
The forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are still below the G20's average growth rate before the 2008 financial crisis and Moody's said it did not expect growth to return to pre-crisis levels within the next five years.
“The recovery in the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, the euro area and Japan, will be offset by the ongoing slowdown in China, low or negative growth in Latin America and only a gradual Russian recovery from its recession this year," report author Marie Diron, a senior vice president at Moody’s, said.
“A sharp or long-lasting correction in asset prices in China is one of the risk factors which could result in lower G20 growth than in our baseline forecasts.”
The report marked the main risks over the coming two years as a “possible further marked correction in Chinese equity and property prices, a disorderly response to the U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated policy tightening and a Greek exit from the euro area.”
Moody's said China’s baseline GDP growth was predicted to be 6.8 percent this year, 6.5 percent in 2016 and falling towards 6 percent by the end of the decade.
“The recent stock market correction is unlikely to have a significant impact on China's GDP growth,” the report said. “The depreciation of the renminbi so far will also not have any marked economic impact.”
U.S. growth will be at 2.4 percent in 2015, rising to 2.8 percent in 2016. “Robust job creation, high corporate profits, favorable financing conditions and pent-up demand” all indicated higher GDP growth, according to the report.
In the 19-member eurozone, Moody's forecast growth of 1.5 percent in both 2015 and 2016.
"The weaker euro and lower oil prices have given a boost to the region's economy,” the agency said. “However, there is no evidence from either increased investment, labor productivity or faster-than-usual employment growth that structural reforms have markedly lifted the region's growth potential.”
