OPEC revises down 2021 global oil demand, keeps it unchanged for 2022

IZMIR

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2021 by 170,000 barrels per day (bpd) but kept growth unchanged for 2022, the group said in its Monthly Oil Market Report on Thursday.

Global oil demand is now expected to increase by around 5.65 million barrels per day (bpd), or 6.2%, to an average of 96.44 million bpd in 2021, relative to the higher figure of 5.82 million bpd in the previous report.

OPEC says the downward revision is mainly driven by "slower than anticipated demand from China and India in the third quarter of 2021." In addition, a slowdown in the pace of recovery in the fourth quarter is now assumed due to elevated energy prices.

In 2022, the group predicted that world oil demand would grow by 4.15 million bpd, or 4.3%, to reach 100.59 million bpd.

"Marginal upward revisions in OECD Europe, due better economic views in some European countries, were offset by softer growth in industrial fuel demand, in OECD America and Latin America," the group explained.

Oil demand in OECD countries is forecast to increase by 5.8% to reach 44.46 million barrels this year, while oil demand in non-OECD countries will rise by 6.6% to reach 51.98 million barrels.

In 2022, oil demand in OECD countries is set to increase by 4.13% to 46.30 million barrels per day, while the oil demand of non-OECD countries is also expected to rise by 4.45% to 54.29 million barrels.

Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 was revised down by 100,000 bpd from the previous estimations to stand at 27.65 million bpd, around 4.9 million bpd higher than in 2020.

OPEC crude oil production rises in October

Global oil production in October increased by 1.74 million bpd compared to the previous month to average 97.56 million bpd.

The report shows that OPEC crude oil production increased by 220,000 bpd month over month to an average of 27.45 million bpd, while the share of OPEC crude out of total global production declined to 28.1% in October, marking a 0.3% fall compared to the previous month.

Crude oil output increased mainly in Saudi Arabia and Venezuela while production decreased primarily in Nigeria and Gabon.

Production in Saudi Arabia increased by 110,000 bpd to nearly 9.8 million bpd and rose by 57,000 bpd to 590,000 bpd in Venezuela.

Meanwhile, oil output in Nigeria decreased by 45,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd and in Gabon by 17,000 bpd to 179,000 bpd.

Non-OPEC liquids production in October increased by 1.52 million bpd compared with the previous month to an average of 70.11 million bpd.