Positive demographics likely to carry Turkey ahead: PwC
Turkey can overtake S. Korea and Italy which have rapidly aging populations, slow birth rates, chief economist of PwC says
By Gokhan Kurtaran
LONDON
Turkey's strong demographics puts it in an advantageous position to overtake South Korea and Italy in the list of the world's largest economies by 2030, according to the chief economist of PricewaterhouseCoopers.
In an exclusive interview with Anadolu Agency on Thursday, John Hawksworth said investors needed to focus on the long-term outlook of economies, and Turkey had many strengths although it suffered short-term issues, both in terms of domestic politics, and instability in the region.
A recently published report by the accounting giant placed many current emerging market economies at the top of the world's largest economies in a relatively close future, saying some developed countries would make room for them.
"There are two economies above Turkey: South Korea and Italy. And they are both mature, advanced economies," Hawksworth said.
"Both of those have very poor demographics, rapidly aging population and slow birth rates. This gives Turkey the potential to move up the rankings and overtake them," he added.
Recalling the report which saw emerging economies catching up with the technology and the productivity of the western economies, Hawksworth said some emerging countries also had the advantage of positive demographics such as Turkey, Indonesia and India.
"They have younger, fast growing working populations. That will also support the growth," he said.
The report forecasts average GDP growth rate of seven emerging market economies - China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico and Turkey - to more than double the growth rate of G7 economies until 2050.
Turkey is expected to rank the 12th largest economy of the world by 2030 ahead of Italy and South Korea, according to the report titled "How will the global economic order change by 2050?".
However, Hawksworth warned that it all depended on Turkey using its potential to full extent.
“It all certainly depends on Turkey’s making use of its potential. Growth in Turkey is still favorable.
"It has a quite strong entrepreneurial culture, and it has a very good geographical position between Europe and Asia. It has quite a lot of strengths," he said.
