Türkiye’s strong grain stocks shield it from global supply risks: Industry official

Türkiye is well positioned to withstand short-term disruptions in global grain supplies as Black Sea tensions and severe drought in Europe threaten food security, an industry official said Wednesday.

Eren Gunhan Ulusoy, president of the International Association of Operative Millers’ Eurasia region, said Türkiye’s strong grain stocks and successful domestic harvest would protect the local market from supply problems.

“Türkiye’s grain production was highly productive this year. With rainfall increasing 76% compared with last year, a new record in wheat production is within reach,” Ulusoy said.

The country’s wheat harvest is expected to reach 24.5 million tons, he added.

“Thanks to both our successful domestic harvest and strong stock structure, Türkiye is fully insulated from this short-term global supply crisis,” Ulusoy said.

“We do not expect any supply or procurement problems in the domestic market in the short or medium term,” he added.

Ulusoy warned that the Russia-Ukraine war has entered a more sensitive phase as port infrastructure, logistics networks and cargo vessels belonging to both countries increasingly became targets.

During the initial stage of the conflict in 2022, Ukrainian ports were closed while Russian ports remained operational, he said, adding that infrastructure on both sides is now exposed to attacks.

Disruptions to exports from Russia and Ukraine, which together account for about 30% of global wheat supplies, could directly affect international markets, Ulusoy said.

Citing the latest US Department of Agriculture projections, he said Russia’s wheat export forecast stood at 43 million to 46 million tons, while Ukraine’s was around 13.5 million tons amid logistical constraints.

Ulusoy said severe drought across Europe could also create new export opportunities for Türkiye’s flour and processed grain industries.

“As the export shares of Ukraine and Russia decline and countries such as the US, Canada and Kazakhstan step in, Türkiye is one of the most critical players capable of filling Europe’s processed grain products gap,” he said.

Türkiye’s flour industry has an annual production capacity of 32 million tons and accounts for 23% of global flour trade, according to IAOM Eurasia.

The country has ranked as the world’s leading flour exporter for 11 consecutive years, according to the association.

The 5th IAOM Eurasia Conference and Exhibition will be held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on Sept. 28-29, bringing together more than 1,000 grain, milling, logistics and equipment industry professionals.