US retail sales expected to surpass $4.8T in 2022: Report

ANKARA

Retail sales in the US are expected to grow between 6% to 8% to more than $4.8 trillion in 2022, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

The retail trade association said it forecasts sales to total between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.

Retail sales showed a 14% annual growth rate in 2021, the highest in more than 20 years.

"We should see durable growth this year given consumer confidence to continue this expansion, notwithstanding risks related to inflation, COVID-19 and geopolitical threats," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement on Tuesday.

The forecast excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

Non-store and online sales are included in the estimate and they are estimated to grow annually between 11% to 13% to $1.17 trillion to $1.19 trillion, as consumers continue to utilize e-commerce, said the NRF

Adobe Analytics said Tuesday that American consumers are expected to spend a record $1 trillion on e-commerce this year.

If realized, it would represent a 13% increase from last year, according to the digital marketing analytics firm.

The expectation is a result of American consumers shifting their shopping preferences to e-commerce.

A total of $1.7 trillion was spent on online shopping in the US during the past two years of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the firm.

The NRF said sales are expected to remain strong as the American economy opens further in the coming months but there is also "considerable" uncertainty.

"Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in the statement.

"In addition to inflation, the forces impacting the economy include COVID-19 impacts, international tensions and policy variability," he added.