EU's 90% greenhouse gas reduction goal by 2040 ‘realistic but insufficient’: Expert

ISTANBUL

The EU's goal of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 is “realistic but insufficient” due to the historical responsibilities of member states, according to an expert.

Data from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reveals a decline in the EU's net carbon dioxide equivalent emissions from 4,658,202 tons in 1990 to 3,241,716 tons by 2021.

Speaking to Anadolu, Umit Sahin, the climate change studies coordinator at Sabancı University's Istanbul Policy Center, highlighted the potential hindrance posed by the lack of prioritization of climate policies by current EU governments in achieving the 2040 target.

Despite the EU Commission's targets set in 2021, which include a 55% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, the bloc has managed a 32.5% reduction by 2022.

The EU's commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 involves a focus on “net cuts” and gradual phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies and coal-fired electricity sources by 2040.

‘Reaching 55% in the remaining 8 years doesn't seem quite easy’

Sahin pointed out the challenge of reaching a 55% reduction in the next eight years, emphasizing the imperative of rapid and sustainable reduction in fossil fuel usage.

He said it entails phasing out coal and accelerating the electrification of transportation to transition away from oil.

Sahin noted that despite efforts, around 3.4 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions, including 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide, were emitted in the EU region by the end of 2022.

While acknowledging the achievability of the 90% reduction target, Sahin underscored its insufficiency due to the high historical responsibility of European countries.

Sahin suggests that countries like the US, EU countries, UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, etc., need to reach net zero emissions much earlier, ideally by the early 2040s, for the global average net zero year to be 2050.

He emphasized the necessity for the EU to phase out coal and accelerate electrification to meet its carbon reduction objectives, cautioning against prolonging dependency on fossil fuels, which would occur if coal usage in the energy sector persists.

“The EU has reduced its emissions by about 30% compared to 1990 by the end of 2022. Reaching 55% in the remaining 8 years doesn't seem quite easy with current projections, but they will likely come close to an emission level equivalent to a 50% reduction by 2030.”

‘If they push its use in the energy sector, the dependency on fossil fuels will prolong’

Sahin highlighted the limitations of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies, citing their low development and effectiveness, which may delay implementation until after the 2030s due to high cost and complexity.

“Moreover, its effectiveness, that is, the amount of carbon dioxide it can capture, is low. If they push its use in the energy sector, the dependency on fossil fuels will prolong, and they are aware of this,” he said.

Sahin pointed out that political conditions, including factors like the Russia-Ukraine War, coronavirus and opposition from right-wing populist parties, have slowed the EU's efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

“The EU has mainly attempted to proceed with market mechanisms such as emission trading systems. However, they have also realized that regulations are more important,” he said.

Sahin also stressed the necessity for “ambitious targets, fair transition policies, incentives for renewable energy and electrification, and increased climate finance opportunities” to reduce greenhouse emissions.

He warned against “wrong policies’’ that could lead to a drop in carbon prices.

*Writing by Gizem Nisa Cebi