New study offers cautious hope for Great Barrier Reef amid rising global temperatures

ANKARA

The Great Barrier Reef may still have a chance to recover from severe coral decline, but only if global temperatures are kept below 2 degrees Celsius, according to media reports.

The modelling, published in Nature Communications and led by the University of Queensland, predicts that coral cover across the reef will be cut in half by 2040, even if warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, The Guardian reported on Wednesday.

“If we stay on the pathway we’re treading, it’s a very bad and grim future for corals,” said Peter Mumby, a lead author of the study. “It won’t lead to the extinction of corals, but it will be an incredibly profound loss.”

The research analyzed the “eco-evolutionary dynamics” of all 3,800 individual reefs in the system, factoring in how some coral species are more heat-tolerant and can pass these traits to their offspring.

However, Yves-Marie Bozec, lead author of the study, said even those natural adaptations would not be enough to offset rapid heating.

“We ran all of those factors with the most up-to-date climate projections—and the news was not good,” he noted.

The study found that by the end of the century, coral cover would fall to just 4% under current emission levels.

Still, researchers say if emissions are curbed and global warming is held under 2 degrees Celsius, the reef could slowly recover.

“This just amplifies the case for global mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions,” said Roger Beeden of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority.

The study was supported by an Australian government program aimed at boosting reef resilience.

According to the UN, the world remains on track for around 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100.