Rising Arctic shipping threatens fragile ecosystem

ISTANBUL

Shipping traffic in the Arctic increased sharply between 2013 and 2023, driving up greenhouse gas and black carbon emissions in the region, according to a new report by Istanbul University.

The study, led by Cem Gazioglu, director of the university’s marine sciences institute, and researcher Irsad Bayirhan, examined how climate change-driven melting of Arctic sea ice is reshaping global trade routes.

The number of ships entering the polar region rose 37% over the past decade, from 1,298 in 2013 to 1,782 in 2023. Black carbon emissions, measured at 193 tons in 2015, climbed to 199 tons in 2020 and are expected to hit 204 tons this year.

Carbon dioxide output from vessels using the Northern Sea Route is projected to rise 1.76 times by 2050 compared with 2020 levels, reaching 5.5 million tons, the study said.

NASA has reported that Arctic sea ice has been shrinking every month since 1979, with some models predicting the North Pole could be completely ice-free year-round between 2081 and 2100.

The Istanbul University analysis found that northern routes could nearly halve shipping distances between Asia and Europe and cut fuel consumption compared with routes via the Suez and Panama canals. But researchers warned the concentration of emissions in the Arctic would place extreme pressure on its delicate ecosystems.

The report listed “high carbon emissions, oil spill risks, invasive species carried by ballast water discharges, and noise pollution” as potential drivers of irreversible damage to wildlife.

Gazioglu told Anadolu that maritime transport accounts for about 3% of the global carbon footprint, a share that could rise as Arctic routes open.

“Shortening trade routes may lead to short-term reductions in fuel consumption; however, emissions from ships pose serious risks to the delicate balance of the Arctic ecosystem,” he said, adding that noise emissions further strain already vulnerable habitats.

He said policymakers must avoid choosing Arctic passages solely for economic and political reasons: “The Arctic ecosystem is far too sensitive to be tolerated by methods like carbon credits. Countries should take up the responsibility.”

Bayirhan said melting glaciers had spurred more maritime activity in the region, with further increases likely.

“To create a more sustainable system for maritime transport, we need to evaluate all the components involved so that measures can be taken without endangering the maritime ecosystem in the Arctic and the creatures living here, while also ensuring the effects of climate change are not exacerbated,” he said.

He also cited EU reports stressing the need for preventive measures to avoid irreversible damage: “Emissions generated from extracting non-renewable resources, these resources’ scarcity, and the further emissions from burning these resources increase the likelihood of negative scenarios for the environment.”

“The Arctic ecosystem faces direct and indirect effects from the rising economic activity, as well as the changes induced by climate change — disasters, noise pollution, and rising market demand add stress on the ecosystem and threaten the region’s biodiversity,” he added.