Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme heat at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to analysis by climate research organization Climate Central, which found that temperatures exceeding the performance-affecting threshold of 28°C are at least 50% likely in 49 of the tournament's 104 matches. The study added that climate change raises the likelihood by at least 10 percentage points in 26 of those matches.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will feature 48 national teams, including Türkiye, competing across 104 matches in 16 cities in the US, Canada and Mexico. Research shows that temperatures above 28°C can affect player performance as well as teams' strategies and styles of play.
The match most affected by climate change is projected to be Uruguay against Spain, to be played in Guadalajara, Mexico, on June 26. The probability of temperatures exceeding 28°C stands at 70% for that match, a figure that would be 37 percentage points lower in the absence of climate change.
In the Türkiye-United States match at Los Angeles Stadium on June 25, the probability of temperatures exceeding 28°C reaches 49%, with climate change contributing 6 percentage points to that figure.
For the final in New Jersey on July 19, the probability of players competing in performance-impairing heat is 47%, compared with 30% without climate change.
The analysis also examined how often extreme-heat days occurred in June and July over the past decade (2016 to 2025), compared with the previous decade when each of ten host cities last staged World Cup matches. Miami, which hosted in 1994, and Mexico City, a host in 1986, have each experienced seven times as many extremely hot June-July days in the past decade compared with their earlier hosting periods.
In an interview with Anadolu, Prof. Dr. Abdullah Yener Ince, an orthopedics and traumatology specialist at Acibadem Maslak Hospital in Istanbul, said rising temperatures are among the most pressing environmental challenges in football today, and must be assessed in terms of both player health and performance.
He noted that players are sometimes forced to compete not only against opponents but also against weather conditions, a challenge that becomes far more pronounced in summer tournaments.
"Players lose more fluid, their heart rates rise and recovery becomes more difficult. Sustaining high-intensity running in the latter stages of matches becomes harder. At a certain point, the body focuses on cooling itself rather than performance," he said.
He added that repeated sprint counts can decline as temperatures rise, concentration becomes harder to maintain, and even a one-second delay in decision-making can alter the outcome of a match.
He also noted that many teams are now incorporating heat acclimatization into their pre-tournament camp plans, as the body's adaptation to heat can make a significant difference to performance.
Ince said the temperatures expected at the World Cup will affect both playing styles and results. "Some teams build their game around high-tempo, high-press play, while others prefer to control the game through possession. Hot weather can particularly affect energy-intensive playing models, and that can change the course of matches," he said.
He concluded by noting the changing nature of football preparation.
"We used to only speak of training science and nutrition, today we are also talking about climate conditions. In the years ahead, successful teams will need not only good players, but teams with strong health and performance capable of adapting to environmental conditions. This is no longer a luxury, it has become an important part of the game," he said.
*Writing by Zeynep Ozturhan in Ankara
