- The Europe ‘that has emerged from the elections would be more reluctant to enlarge,’ says University of Athens’ Panayiotis Ioakimidis
- Delay in EU integration will embolden nationalists in Western Balkans and open the way for countries like China and Russia to increase their influence, according to Ioakimidis- Far-right gains in France and Germany are bad news for Ukraine as these parties are pro-Russia and oppose military or economic support for Kyiv, say experts ATHENS
For many observers, the results of the recent European Parliament elections were not much of a surprise, offering up more evidence of gains for the far-right and the further weakening of forces on the opposite side of the political spectrum.
However, when it comes to the implications, experts foresee a cascading effect on various aspects of European politics, and more importantly, security.
This line of thought begins with the issue of EU enlargement.
Analysts such as Panayiotis Ioakimidis, emeritus professor of international relations at the University of Athens, believe that Europe “that has emerged from the elections would be more reluctant to enlarge.”
“That would have a detrimental and harmful impact, especially in the Western Balkans,” he told Anadolu.
A further delay in that process will embolden the more nationalist powers in the Western Balkans, which in turn gives more space to non-European actors to expand their footprint, he explained.
“This will pave the way for non-European countries, such as China, Russia and Saudi Arabia, or perhaps some other countries, to seek to extend their influence in the region,” said Ioakimidis.
“That could have very harmful implications for the security of the region and of Europe as a whole.”
Filippa Chatzistavrou, a senior political scientist at the University of Athens, pointed out that the EU prospects of Western Balkan nations – Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania – was a complicated issue even before the elections.
While it is true that extreme-right parties oppose EU integration, the bloc itself was already not willing to move ahead with the process, she argued.
“One reason is that the Western Balkans countries have not managed to fulfill all the conditions for EU membership,” she told Anadolu.
“Besides, some EU states, including Emmanuel Macron’s France, have not been so keen on integrating the region either.”
However, according to Chatzistavrou, the EU cannot afford to lose the region.
“The Western Balkans, along with Greece, are the Amazon of Europe with their natural and energy resources, which are crucial for the green transformation,” she said.
“That is why they will not leave the Western Balkans out of all cooperation schemes and will offer cooperation in certain sectors … This also will be an answer to the competition coming from Russia, China, and Türkiye.”
Support for Ukraine
One specific area where the impact of the far-right’s gains could be felt is in Europe’s support for Ukraine, according to Ioakimidis.
This is particularly true for France and Germany, the two strongest and most influential members of the EU, where far-right parties have made major strides in last week’s elections, he said.
“Most of these parties are rather friendly to President Vladimir Putin and to Russia, and reserved or very inimical to Ukraine,” he said.
“They don’t want to support Ukraine. They don’t want to give either economic or military assistance to Ukraine.”
However, Ioakimidis stressed that things will become clearer with time once the new formation of the European Commission and European Council takes shape.
The French case
For both Ioakimidis and Chatzistavrou, the far-right’s advance in these elections was expected, but the scale of their success in France and Germany, in particular Macron’s crushing defeat, was rather surprising.
Ioakimidis believes Macron’s failure to address deep-seated problems ranging from economic to societal has made him one of the least popular presidents of France.
A second factor was the EU itself, which has failed to establish a better relationship with European society as a whole and French society in particular, he said.
“The EU failed to explain its policies, especially the Green Deal, and the impact that plans like the Green Deal are likely to have on sectors such as farming,” he added.
“That gap was exploited by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.”
Chatzistavrou, on the other hand, pointed to a positive development in France, which is that the leftist parties forming a new alliance, Popular Front, to take on the far-right in the snap elections Macron has announced.
She said this model could be imitated by parties in Germany and elsewhere “as a practical necessity.”
“In the face of the rise of the far-right, there is a need for a compromise between social democratic and radical left parties, both at the national and European level,” she asserted.
