Anadolu staff
28 March 2025•Update: 28 March 2025
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BERLIN (AA) - Germany's intelligence service BND has issued a stark warning about Russia's potential military attack on a NATO country in the near future, German public broadcasters reported Friday.
According to WDR and NDR television channels, the German military and BND intelligence service have informed political authorities that Russia will have the military capability to wage “large-scale conventional warfare” by the end of this decade.
“Russia sees itself in a systemic conflict with the West and is prepared to implement its imperialistic goals through military force, even beyond Ukraine,” said the report, which drew on recent intelligence findings, satellite surveillance, and economic analysis.
The report's leak to the media coincides with crucial NATO discussions about increasing defense budgets and military aid commitments to Ukraine. Germany's military and intelligence services have consistently urged politicians to boost defense spending in response to the Russian threat.
The BND's assessment aligned with a recent confidential analysis from Lithuania's State Security Department (VSD). According to the VSD, while Russia currently lacks the capability for “waging a large-scale conventional war” against NATO, it possesses sufficient resources “to launch a limited military action” against one or more NATO countries.
The report highlighted Russia's continuing military buildup, noting that “while Western sanctions had negatively impacted the Russian defense industry, the production volume of artillery shells, missiles, and other crucial ammunition categories continued to increase year by year.”
According to financial data in the assessment, Russia's military spending would reach approximately €120 billion ($130 billion) by 2025, with plans to recruit up to 1.5 million additional soldiers by 2026.
