Ayhan Simsek
16 July 2026•Update: 16 July 2026
Germany's economy could lose more than €20 billion ($23 billion) a year if the country experiences severe heatwaves on a regular basis, according to a new study published on Thursday.
Economic research firm Prognos calculated that each day with temperatures above 35C (95F) could cost the EU's largest economy nearly €1 billion ($1.15 billion).
The analysis, prepared for the German business daily Handelsblatt, estimated that the heatwave during the final two weeks of June alone cost Germany's economy about €6.32 billion ($7.25 billion).
Prognos said Germany could face three or four heatwaves of similar intensity each year in the future, pushing annual economic losses above €20 billion.
According to the study, manufacturing is the sector most affected by extreme heat, followed by health and social services, retail, construction and the food industry.
The researchers said their estimates do not include several potential costs, including higher energy prices, machine breakdowns, supply chain disruptions and long-term infrastructure damage.
They said total economic losses could be even higher once those factors are taken into account.
Low water levels drive up transport costs
The June heatwave, combined with below-average rainfall, has pushed water levels in Germany’s major rivers to near-record lows this week, affecting key shipping routes including the Rhine, Elbe and Danube.
With water levels critically low, cargo ships are sailing with substantially reduced loads to avoid running aground. The result is lower freight volumes and higher transport costs rippling through supply chains.
Andreas Bartel of Duisport, the operator of Duisburg port, told the German news agency DPA that the sector is struggling with the fallout. “The result is lower cargo volumes per vessel and, consequently, rising transport costs along the supply chain,” he said.
Water levels on the Rhine saw a slight rise Thursday following heavy rains in southern Germany, but experts said the improvement would be short-lived, with levels expected to drop again after next week.
