TEHRAN
With Boris Johnson taking over as Britain's new prime minister, Iranians are looking forward to him to defuse simmering tensions between Tehran and London over the seizure of oil tankers.
Iran and Britain engaged in a war of words last month when London seized an Iranian-flagged oil tanker off Gibraltar on suspicion of violating EU sanctions on Syria.
Tehran accused London with "piracy" and responded with capturing a British vessel in the strategic Strait of Hormuz for "violating international maritime rules".
The escalation has come at a time when Iran and EU/E3 are exploring ways to bypass U.S. sanctions and salvage the 2015 nuclear deal.
With Johnson elected as the new British Prime Minister, Iranian officials, including President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, have expressed desire to work closely with him to defuse the crisis.
Rouhani sent a congratulatory message to Johnson on Sunday, expressing hope for closer ties between Tehran and London under his leadership.
Referring to Johnson's 2017 visit to Tehran and his understanding of regional dynamics, Rouhani termed it a positive factor that can "contribute to removing the existing obstacles on the path of development of relations between the two countries".
Zarif, in his congratulatory message, assured his former British counterpart that "Iran does not seek confrontation".
Last week, Johnson’s father, in an interview with Iran's state-owned Press TV, said he was confident that his son would defuse tensions and "build bridges with Iran".
"Boris is a man who has this great sense of history," he said. "Iran means so much to him, so the chance to have long-standing relationship with a country with such a fantastic history."
Guarded optimism
While Iranian officials are pinning hopes in Britain’s new political leadership to end the simmering crisis, the optimism in Iran is carefully guarded.
Sadrodin Moosavi, a senior analyst and managing director of Iran’s state-run newspaper Iran Daily, feels Johnson will try to settle the problem with Iran for multiple reasons.
Johnson, he said, must concentrate on the Brexit issue, otherwise he will lose his office and the future of his party will be threatened too in the highly divided British parliament.
"So, the escalation of the situation (with Iran) will consume a considerable chunk of his time and energy,” Moosavi told Anadolu Agency.
Other reasons, according to him, include the possibility of Labour Party trying to undermine him if he fails to de-escalate the situation, the need to prove to the British public that he will not be U.S. President Donald Trump's henchman, and awareness about the economic costs of navigation for the U.K. in the Strait of Hormuz and international waters in case of escalation.
On the seizure of the Iranian oil tanker, Moosavi said the action was against the nuclear deal that Britain is trying to keep alive.
"The release of the Iranian tanker will be a good gesture that shows Britain's sincerity in keeping the nuclear deal alive, which will in turn pave way for improvement of bilateral ties," he said.
Reza Nasri, a legal expert and foreign policy analyst, believes that Johnson has the opportunity to turn the page and start his government with a clean slate vis-a-vis Iran.
"Iranian officials hope he would seize this opportunity and adopt a more constructive approach instead of further complicating the situation by pursuing the same ‘May-Hunt’ policy," Nasri said, referring to former Prime Minister Theresa May and Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt.
He said the release of the Iranian tanker by the U.K. would be a goodwill gesture that would be reciprocated by Iran and would also help Johnson score political points at home.
"Releasing the Iranian tanker would not just be the ‘right’ thing to do, it would also be the ‘legal’ thing to do,” Nasri said.
"The May government claimed that it seized the Iranian tanker to implement a European Union law. But the fact is that EU law does not apply to this particular situation," he said.
"What applies is ‘international law’ and the U.K. is not permitted to seize or detain Iran's vessel under the international law framework."
Dark clouds
While some observers believe that Iran and the U.K. have an opportunity to open a new chapter in their relations and de-escalate the situation, the other side of the opinion is grim.
"This is no more than an empty political compliment. At the moment, both of them need to save their face,” said Maysam Araee, Founder of Maynter Center for Strategic Studies.
"I don't mean to suggest that they will not reach an agreement in future, but absence of common interests in economy, petroleum and politics does not augur well for their bilateral ties."
Araee said the two countries need to engage in meaningful talks to resolve issues.
"The seizure of tankers is not a matter that cannot be resolved if there is intention and will to defuse the crisis and improve ties. The ball is in U.K.’s court now."
Ali Pishroo, U.K.-based political analyst, does not see much hope of improved ties between Iran and the U.K. "under present circumstances” unless Iran reaches an agreement with the West, especially the U.S.
"In the event of England's exit from Europe, the country needs a strong and secure economic alternative and Donald Trump has promised long-term free trade deal with England," said Pishroo.
"Therefore, Iran cannot have much hope of improving relations with Britain, which is getting closer to the U.S."
