ANKARA
Logistics will be a decisive factor in determining how effective US M1 Abrams, British Challenger 2, and German Leopard tanks will be in Ukraine as Russia reportedly gears up for a spring offensive, according to defense experts.
The fact that these tanks have standard NATO weapons systems and subsystems that are greatly different from their Russian-made counterparts can create a major challenge for the Ukrainian military to operate and particularly maintain them, said Ahmet Alemdar, a senior Turkish defense expert.
“We’re talking about three different types of tanks,” he said, noting that training Ukrainian tank operators and maintenance teams is no easy task, especially when there is time pressure, as the tanks are badly needed in the field by spring.
Moreover, even after deploying them in the field, the tanks will need constant and extensive maintenance, a vast amount of ammunition, and spare parts, which will require the formation of an efficient and swift logistics network, said Alemdar.
He underscored that the success of the Western tanks will greatly depend on the Ukrainian forces who will use them.
The tactics and strategies that Ukrainian forces will employ and the tanks’ interoperability with other weapon systems including electronic warfare systems, artillery, and various aerial elements will be the most critical factors, according to Alemdar.
He said that fortunately for Ukraine, Ukrainian forces have already gained familiarity with using complex Western weapons.
The Russians, on the other hand, are reported to have begun fielding their latest tanks and armored fighting vehicles, including T-90s and BMPT Terminators, after losing huge numbers of such vehicles in the field, he said.
Against this backdrop, it is harder to make projections on the capabilities of the Russian army’s mechanized and armored elements, he explained.
Unsuitable ground for infantry
Anil Sahin, the editor-in-chief of a major Turkish defense news outlet, said the vast steppes of eastern Ukraine are unsuitable for infantry warfare and consequently, armored and mechanized forces are heavily employed by both sides.
He noted that the high tempo of the war, in which tanks have played an important role since its beginning last February, combined with the powerful anti-tank missiles that both Russia and Ukraine possess resulted in enormous tank and armored vehicle losses among the warring parties.
“Even hundreds of Soviet-era tanks provided to Kyiv by East European countries were not sufficient in the face of the extensivity of the battles, which intensified in eastern Ukraine,” Sahin said.
He said it was against this background that Western countries started rushing numerous armored vehicles to Ukraine, including US-made M113s and MaxxPros, German-made Marders and French-made AMX-10RCs and decided to send US Abrams, German Leopard, and British Challenger tanks.
According to Sahin, if Western tanks come with Israeli-made active protection systems (APS) such as Trophy, they would considerably boost Ukraine’s armored capabilities against the Russians.
If such modern Western vehicles are provided in increasing quantities, Ukraine can consider launching an assault on Russian forces before waiting for the Russians to attack or after, if it can, repelling the expected Russian spring attack, he added.
However, Sahin, like Alemdar, stressed the importance of logistics to be able to keep Western tanks on the battlefield.
Unlike their Russian counterparts, Western vehicles are more complicated to maintain, he said, adding that most such vehicles would need to be sent back to workshops in Eastern European countries for repair and maintenance.
As such, it would be a time-consuming and difficult endeavor to move tanks between Eastern Europe and eastern Ukraine, he added.
