Poland braces for Tusk-led post-PiS coalition government

WARSAW

In final results from the weekend election, Poland’s National Electoral Commission said Tuesday that the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party won 35.38% of the vote, the opposition trio Civic Coalition (KO) got 30.70%, Third Way 14.40%, and the New Left 8.61%, while the far-right Confederation 7.16%.

The largest share of seats will go to the PiS, with 194, with the KO getting 157, while the Third Way gets 65 MPs and the New Left 26. The last party in the Sejm lower house is the far-right Confederation with 18 MPs.

As no party has a majority, the coalition that appears the most likely is made up of the KO, the Third Way, and the New Left, a coalition led by Donald Tusk, former prime minister and ex-European Council president.

All three parties share promises to reverse what they say is Poland’s democratic backsliding since the PiS came to power in 2015, and all three say public spending on education and health and reversing restrictive abortion laws are paramount. But how this would be paid for – fiscal policy – is perhaps the crucial arena in which positions and responsibilities will be allocated in the weeks ahead.

During the campaign, the KO emphasized the need to unblock EU funds, including funds from the National Reconstruction Plan. The EU has blocked the €35 billion ($36.9 billion) in funds until Poland shows it is reversing what it considers to be undemocratic practices.

PiS in opposition

The KO’s manifesto explicitly said it would “put President Andrzej Duda before the State Tribunal in the first hundred days after taking power." They say he is guilty of violating the Constitution.

This now means the almost 200-strong PiS parliamentary club will likely fight its corner, and Duda’s role is now crucial.

On Tuesday, Tusk appealed to the president to decide soon what to do next. "People are waiting for the first decisions," he said.