- Era of 2-party system faces its most severe pressure in decades as insurgent parties gain ground in regional, local elections
- Reform UK and the Greens capitalize on voter frustration, reshaping political competition
- Scottish and Welsh contests highlight growing strength of nationalist parties
As the UK prepares to vote in elections on Thursday, experts say the results could mark a pivotal moment for Britain’s political system, with the dominance of the two main parties facing unprecedented strain.
Around one-third of England’s local council seats, alongside the entire parliaments of Scotland and Wales, are up for grabs. The outcome is expected to deal a significant blow to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government and pose a critical test for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives.
The latest YouGov polling indicates a dramatic fragmentation of the electorate.
Labour, which secured 35% of the vote when these seats were last contested in 2022, has seen its support fall to a projected 17-20%.
The Conservatives find themselves in a similar struggle, polling around 18-21%.
Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London suggests the Conservative’s struggle to capitalize on Labour’s weakness is rooted in their long tenure.
"The Conservatives are still paying the price of fourteen years of what many voters see as failure in government – voters just aren't ready to give them another chance yet,” he told Anadolu.
Reform UK surge
The main beneficiary of this disillusionment appears to be Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform UK.
The party has surged from near-zero local presence in 2022 to polling between 24% and 26% nationally.
Projections suggest Reform could win more than 1,000 of the more than 5,000 council seats up for election in England and potentially take control of county councils in eastern areas such as Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk.
On whether Reform UK could become the dominant force on the right, Bale offered a cautious view.
"Polling certainly indicates that Reform UK stands a chance of displacing the Conservatives but there's a long way to go before the next general election so no-one should write the Conservatives off just yet,” he said.
The next UK general election is due to be held no later than Aug. 15, 2029.
Reform’s rise has also been accompanied by controversy.
Reform has faced what some UK media have dubbed a "vetting fiasco" following reports of candidates making racist or extremist social media posts.
Despite this, the party’s messaging on the cost of living and immigration continues to resonate with segments of the working class and voters who supported Brexit.
Greens emerge as wildcard in London
On the left, the Green Party is experiencing a record-high polling average of 15%. It is particularly competitive in urban areas and among voters under 30, where they now lead all other parties.
Bale said Labour’s recent policy positioning has contributed to this shift.
"Labour has alienated many of its more idealistic younger supporters by trying to talk and act tough on immigration and integration, as well as on other culture war issues like the trans debate,” he said.
"It's also failed to get the economy going and do anything about the dire state and expense of housing in the capital and other big cities. What they see as Starmer's failure to condemn Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon sufficiently strongly hasn't helped him either.”
All 32 London boroughs are holding "all-out" elections, meaning all the council seats are being contested at the same time.
While the Greens are challenging Labour in inner-city areas such as Hackney and Lewisham, Bale said a broader political realignment remains uncertain.
"The Greens are likely to win a lot of seats from Labour in the more multicultural parts of inner London but their appeal in outer London is more limited,” he said. “And even if they do win big, we'd have to see that victory repeated next year and the year after that to be able to label it a genuine realignment."
How much the Greens will be able to translate these gains into power is another question.
"The Greens will win lots of local government seats in England but, because by no means every seat in every council is up for election this year, they won't necessarily win control of many councils as a result,” said Bale. “That doesn't mean they won't get control of any, especially if they are prepared to do deals with other parties after the elections."
Scotland and Wales
Beyond English councils, Scotland and Wales offer their own unique battles.
For the first time, the Senedd – the Welsh Parliament – will be elected under a fully proportional system with an expanded 96-seat chamber.
Polling shows a knife-edge race between the center-left Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru and Reform UK to be the largest party, with Labour facing a historic collapse to third place.
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) remains ahead at around 39%, though short of an outright majority, according to the Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor.
Reform UK is also projected to make gains in Scotland, potentially winning up to 20 seats through regional lists.
While national figures focus on high-level strategy, local issues remain the deciding factor for many. According to a YouGov survey, the state of roads and the cost of living top the list of voter concerns.
The 2026 cycle is also being described as the UK’s first "AI election." The Electoral Commission has launched pilot schemes to detect deepfakes, amid fears that AI-generated disinformation could influence outcomes in tightly contested races.
