Aysu Bicer
10 December 2024•Update: 10 December 2024
LONDON
In a session held by the UK Parliament’s Defense Committee on Tuesday, experts discussed the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and the possible trajectories the conflict could take as it enters its 1,000th day.
The meeting featured Patricia Lewis, former Director of the International Security Program at Chatham House, and Marshal Edward Stringer, Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange, who provided stark assessments of the conflict’s potential outcomes.
Dr. Lewis outlined three primary scenarios for the war's future.
The first, and perhaps most plausible, is a continuation of the current stalemate. "It continues like this, at enormous cost to all sides, with Russian gains being contained," she explained, adding that localized breakthroughs by both sides might occur, but without significant territorial shifts.
Such a prolonged "hot war" would result in severe human and economic losses not only for Russia and Ukraine but also for their respective allies, she noted.
A second possibility discussed by Lewis was a negotiated ceasefire.
"Given the change in government coming in the US and the situation on the ground, this seems increasingly likely," she noted.
However, she cautioned that past experiences, such as the 2014 ceasefire negotiations that faltered over NATO membership, highlight the complexities of reaching a lasting agreement.
Security guarantees for Ukraine, especially in light of prior Russian violations, would be critical in any future accord, she added.
The third and less likely scenarios included a total Russian victory, which Lewis described as improbable given fierce Ukrainian resistance and international support, or a Ukrainian triumph driving Russian forces out, potentially triggered by a crisis in Moscow.
Marshal Stringer echoed Lewis's assessment of a possible “no outcome” scenario, suggesting a frozen conflict may emerge.
“If this war is still going on this time next year, both sides will be extremely tired,” he said.
He pointed to the increasing strain on Russia’s economy and its dwindling military resources as key factors in this protracted stalemate. Even under such conditions, casualties on both sides would remain high, with limited shifts in the front lines.
Adding a layer of unpredictability, both experts highlighted the potential impact of the forthcoming US administration, particularly under president elect Donald Trump, whose policy decisions could significantly alter the trajectory of the war.
