UK-proposed asylum rules cut rights 'without reducing arrivals,' says expert

LONDON

The UK government’s proposed asylum reforms would make the system “one of the most restrictive” in Europe while offering little evidence that arrivals would fall, a migration expert has warned.

Peter William Walsh, a researcher at the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, told Anadolu that the plans, which include longer waits for settlement, tighter family reunion rules, and a shift towards temporary protection, could leave many refugees living in the UK with uncertainty for years.

“The UK government’s proposed reforms would make the UK, on paper, one of the most restrictive asylum systems in Europe, with far longer waits for settlement, tighter family reunion rules, and a shift towards temporary rather than secure protection,” he said.

Ministers hope the changes will deter people from seeking asylum in the UK, but Walsh believes evidence from across Europe suggests that other factors, such as existing communities, language, and global conditions, influence people's decisions.

He added that the consequences would extend well beyond questions of deterrence, pointing to the human and social costs of widespread temporary status.

“Moving refugees onto short, renewable protection and making settlement possible only after decades risks creating prolonged insecurity, which is known to undermine employment, social integration, and the ability to rebuild one’s life,” he said.

He warned that stricter family reunion rules “may offer some deterrent effect, but at the cost of prolonged family separation.”

“Overall, the proposals reduce rights without necessarily reducing arrivals, while increasing the number of people living for many years with insecure status and limited routes to permanent residence,” he said.

Under the draft proposals, refugees will no longer be automatically granted indefinite leave to remain. Instead, their status will be limited to 30-month protection, subject to regular review.

Settlement and permanent residence—previously possible after five years under existing rules—would only become achievable after 20 years.

These changes also include tightened family reunion rules. The government has already suspended automatic family reunion for those granted refugee status or humanitarian protection.