As Gaza pause ends, experts point to ‘more complex’ Israel-Hamas swap deals

• Demands from Hamas to release Israeli soldiers ‘much higher,’ leading to ‘more resistance from Israel,’ says Mekelberg, associate fellow at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Program

• Hamas had depleted its pool of the ‘so-called easiest humanitarian releases,’ says Ryan Bohl, senior analyst at risk intelligence firm RANE

• Israel’s intent to resume Gaza operations ‘not just a far-right phenomenon,’ but rather a ‘consensus position within Israel,’ says Bohl

ISTANBUL

The tension was palpable as the deadline for an extension in Gaza’s humanitarian pause inched closer.

There were fervent diplomatic contacts to secure a new deal for exchange of more hostages for Palestinians held captive in Israeli prisons.

Hopes grew dimmer as Friday morning dawned, before the announcement came that the pause was officially over.

Within minutes, Israeli started striking different areas of the Gaza Strip, while clashes on the ground have also picked up again.

While efforts for an extension were being pursued, some experts were hinting at the possibility that they had reached the end of the line.

According to Yossi Mekelberg, associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program, it was becoming “more complex to reach an agreement about hostages for prisoners.”

While exchanges involving women, children and the elderly were in the interest of both sides, the process is considerably “more difficult” when it comes to soldiers, he said.

He said the demands from Hamas to release Israeli soldiers would be “much higher,” leading to “more resistance from Israel.”

“At the beginning, there was the possibility of an agreement, all-for-all, which means what’s now left is around hundreds of Israelis – soldiers, both men and women – and those who are in the age of military service but not soldiers, and also bodies of dead soldiers,” Mekelberg told Anadolu.

“And the demand from Hamas is to release around 6,000 to 7,000 prisoners in Israeli jails, including … the kind with blood on their hands. So, this is where the negotiation gets complex.”

Another complicating factor, according to Mekelberg, was Thursday’s shooting attack in Jerusalem claimed by Hamas, which killed four Israelis and wounded 12 more.

He said the attack was carried out by Hamas fighters “who were released in a previous exchange of prisoners, which makes the logic of the exchange … way more difficult.”

Geopolitical analyst Ryan Bohl concurred with Mekelberg’s view, saying that Hamas had depleted its pool of the “so-called easiest humanitarian releases,” such as women and children, and faced the challenge of releasing more men and soldiers.

“They are running low on those folks … and they now have a lot more men and a lot more soldiers. That’s trickier for them to spin those releases,” Bohl, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence firm RANE, told Anadolu in a video interview.

He said the Israeli army almost resumed its operations in Gaza on Thursday morning “as Hamas was going through these lists.”

“They’ve got about … 160 hostages that are left. Not all of them are in Hamas’ hands and not all the militant criminal groups are willing to exchange their prisoners on terms that Israel can live with,” he added.

Resumption of military operations

Bohl was clear in his assessment that the humanitarian pauses will not lead to an end to the conflict, saying the “cease-fire is living day by day.”

“The Israelis will eventually resume military operations without a diplomatic deal to see Hamas leave the Gaza Strip,” he said.

This, he added, is “not just a far-right phenomenon,” but rather a “consensus position within Israel.”

According to Bohl, there is still “low probability but growing chance that Israel and Hamas may find an alternative diplomatic solution.”

He said the US is not in a position to tell Israel that they have to halt operations unilaterally, adding that Israel will continue on its own course “even over American protests, given the scale of the Oct. 7 attack.”

He cited a report from the Wall Street Journal that alludes to a possible US and Israel plan about the future of Gaza, under which they are “looking to find a way to get Hamas to evacuate from the Gaza Strip, similar to how the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization) withdrew from Beirut in 1982, and then for other international forces, or more probably the IDF, to assume responsibility for Gaza.”

Cease-fire push

According to Mekelberg, there is growing pressure from the international community for a cease-fire.

“Most right-wing elements within the Israeli government have been, to a certain degree, marginalized by having more reasonable elements joining the emergency cabinet that makes it … more conducive to international pressure,” he said.

For Bohl, the international pressure is in two separate spheres.

“There is the American approach, which is looking at the temporary humanitarian pauses, and then there’s more of the Arab and Muslim world approach, and to a certain extent, the European approach, which wants a permanent cease-fire,” he explained.

Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, believes that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will “probably have more power to bring forward his policies than the right-wing politicians in his coalition, including those of his own party.”

“International pressure, American pressure, as are his own concerns as to the impact this war may have on relations with Egypt, his ability to gather international support against the Iranian nuclear program, or his goal to further the Abraham Accords, are all interests that could play a rule in whether or not Netanyahu will seek to end the war, or at least continue it on a different format,” Freeman told Anadolu.

Mekelberg believes that the conflict will come to a cease-fire at one point or another.

“It’s just a matter of time and, of course, time matters a lot in this sense because the longer the war, the more bloodshed and the more destruction. So that’s the kind of the big challenge … to bring it to a close as quickly as possible,” he said.

Who benefited from the humanitarian pauses?

For Mekelberg, both Israel and Hamas benefitted from the several days of a humanitarian pause.

Israel was able to relieve some of the pressure it was facing about securing the release of hostages like young children and the elderly, he said.

Hamas “also improved their political standing” by managing to get out some prisoners, while the pauses also gave “them time to regroup for Israel,” he added.

For Israel, another advantage was it had time to rethink how it can fight Hamas in a way that does not harm civilians as much as it has done, according to Mekelberg.

“Israel used excessive force that caused terrible deaths among Palestinians, mainly civilians and children, and the pressure is mounting by the international community,” he said.

However, according to Bohl, Israel will now follow a position that is the American position.

“That’s the one that matters the most to the Israelis, in terms of their military leverage, their diplomatic connections et cetera,” he said.

“So, what Washington says, tends to be how Israel will interpret its interests.”​​​​​​​