Melike Pala
14 January 2025•Update: 14 January 2025
ANKARA
The European Union, seeking to promote stability in Syria following the collapse of the 61-year Baath regime, must quickly lift the sanctions imposed on the country, according to a noted foreign policy analyst.
The collapse of Syria's 61-year Baath regime and a transitional government’s formation highlight the need to lift US and EU sanctions for the nation’s economic recovery, said Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Barnes said Europeans need to remain focused on Syria and recognize it as a significant strategic opportunity, considering the past decade's turmoil and Syria's role as a source of instability, refugees, and terrorism.
“This is an opportunity to fundamentally kind of change the direction of travel for Syria, to make it a country that is stable within the region, not a source of instability, a country where refugees can choose to go back to,” Barnes-Dacey told Anadolu.
He added: “I think that obviously everyone is very aware of the fact that the country is going to be through a very fragile transition, and that there are huge challenges ahead for the new leadership in Syria.”
Europe has focused more on the actions of the Syrian government than on supporting a positive transition, he argued.
Stressing the "immediate acute needs" in Syria’s economy, humanitarian aid, and exemptions from sanctions – which many actors have been calling for since December’s fall of the Assad regime – Barnes-Dacey said the EU must act faster despite hesitation and difficulty reaching consensus among the 27 member states.
He said Europe's long-term political and economic partnership with Syria hinges on an "inclusive transition," warning of the risk “that the situation unravels much more quickly on the ground than one would like, and Europeans are unable to support the transition that they claim to want."
‘Sanctions worsen economic, humanitarian crises’
Barnes-Dacey pointed to the restrictive impact of Western sanctions, particularly "US sanctions, more than European sanctions," decrying their role in "exacerbating the economic collapse and the humanitarian crisis on the ground."
“Because of sanctions, humanitarian agencies are much less able to access and do business in Syria, and the lack of financial channels has been hugely restricted," he said, urging they be lifted to "make for a dramatic change."
Sanctions relief would allow the Syrian diaspora and humanitarian agencies to do more in Syria while facilitating aid from the likes of Gulf Cooperation Council states, he said. Barnes-Dacey predicted there will be some sanctions exemptions with a "time bound and conditional element" tied to "inclusive transition."
Though Europe is keen to see Syrian refugees choose to go home, he cautioned that without stabilizing an inclusive transition and improving economic conditions on the ground, few Syrians will return as "they won't see a future for themselves."
On the country’s new interim administration, led by the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, Barnes-Dacey pointed to some “cautious optimism” in Europe over HTS as "Europeans see that HTS has gone through an evolution and that it's moderated its position."
HTS has made strong efforts to reach out to minorities and to talk about the need for an inclusive transition, he said.
Barnes-Dacey added that as HTS looks to be moving to a more moderate path, there is willingness to work with it “to move the group and Syria in a better direction."
On Israel’s current incursions into Syrian territory, which have drawn widespread condemnation, he said: “Israel is clearly taking advantage of the Syrian state current weakness to push ahead with its own security agenda.” Israel means to weaken Syria even more, he added.
Barnes-Dacey stressed that a successful transition requires "a Syrian state that is not under attack and that has some security capabilities to maintain domestic control and protect itself from threats" and emphasized that Europe must oppose military attacks on the country.
*Writing by Fatma Zehra Solmaz
