JERUSALEM
Hours after a ceasefire deal took effect in Gaza on Sunday, large numbers of Hamas fighters showed up in Gaza City during the handover of three Israeli women held captive in the enclave.
The scene came as a shock for Israel, which has vowed to destroy the resistance group during its 15-month genocidal war that has killed nearly 47,000 people, mostly women and children, and injured over 110,700 others since Oct. 7, 2023.
“Even after 15 months of war, Hamas remains in place,” Israeli analyst Avi Issacharoff wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.
“Although the government of Benjamin Netanyahu said it will eradicate Hamas, the group not only survived militarily but also retained its rule intact,” he added.
“For months, Netanyahu and his ministers adamantly refused to hold serious discussions about finding an alternative to Hamas' rule, despite warnings from security officials that this war would ultimately be futile.”
The Israeli analyst described the re-emergence of Hamas as ‘the greatest failure of this war.”
He termed the government’s failure to draft a “day-after” plan for Gaza after the war as a “criminal and deliberate neglect.”
"We've reached the day-after, albeit temporarily, and Israel wakes up from one nightmare to another. On the other side of the border, Hamas continues to rule, build tunnels, and recruit more people," the analyst said.
Sovereign power
Brigadier General Amir Avivi, head of the non-governmental organization "Habithonistim" (The Securityists), said Israeli security authorities focused on destroying Hamas as a military body and assassinating its leaders.
"Alongside eliminating parts of Hamas’ leadership, Israel has not taken concrete steps to overthrow the movement as a governing authority,” he told Maariv newspaper.
"While we caused severe damage to their stockpile of munitions, politically and in the eyes of the population (Palestinians in Gaza), Hamas remains the sovereign power,” he said.
Military analyst Amos Harel of Haaretz newspaper echoed the same opinion.
“In the center of Gaza City, several kilometers away from where Israeli troops had been operating until a few days ago, hundreds of armed activists emerged. Seemingly, Hamas was displaying both its military power and aspirations for reestablishing civilian government,” he said.
"But this is not yet a fait accompli; other arrangements for the future of the Gaza Strip may be on the agenda within a few months," he opined.
“Hamas sought on Sunday to make a show of force as the Israeli forces withdraw from points of friction across the Gaza Strip.”
Grim reality
Harel downplayed Netanyahu’s threats to resume the Gaza war after the first phase of the six-week agreement, calling them largely theoretical.
“The talk about resuming the war, which is supposed to happen at the end of Phase 1 in six weeks, is already mainly theoretical. The decision now lies with (incoming US President Donald) Trump.”
Harel concluded with a grim reality: "The sad truth is that Israel largely lost the war on October 7, 2023.”
According to analysts, Israel has largely failed to achieve its declared goals during the Gaza war, including returning its captives and dismantling Hamas’ capabilities.
“We have long made the point to the Israeli Government that Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone,” outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a speech at the Atlantic Council in Washington on Jan. 14.
“That’s exactly what’s happened in northern Gaza since October 7th. Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and re-emerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void. Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost. That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”
The 3-phase ceasefire deal in Gaza includes a prisoner exchange and sustained calm, aiming for a permanent truce and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the enclave.
The Israeli war has left more than 11,000 people missing, with widespread destruction and a humanitarian crisis that has claimed the lives of many elderly people and children in one of the worst global humanitarian disasters ever.
In November, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
Israel also faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its war on the enclave.
*Writing by Rania Abu Shamala
