By Sibel Morrow
ANKARA
Syria’s civil war gave Russia the opportunity to return to international politics as a superpower, according to Turkish experts.
Now in its eighth year, it began as an uprising against the country's president, Bashar al-Assad, and evolved into a conflict with many countries taking part with different motivations.
But the only winner of the war seems to be Russia, Oytun Orhan, coordinator of Syria studies at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), told Anadolu Agency.
Although the Syrian regime is said to be winning the civil war, “in the current picture, we see a country more than half of which has been displaced or exposed to forced migration, the infrastructure of which has been totally destroyed and a regime which has no control in certain parts of the country”, said Orhan.
The YPG had a short-term gain, but it was not sustainable, he said.
"Now Russia has become a policy-maker in Syria. Even the Syrian regime is now dependent on Russia," Orhan said. "The Syrian war gave Russia the opportunity to return to international politics as a superpower."
There are local, regional and international actors taking part in the war, Orhan said.
"The internal actors of the war in Syria are the regime, the opposition -- although they are not united -- and the YPG/SDF.
"The external actors include Russia, which backs the regime, Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah and the Iranian-backed foreign national Shia militia."
Orhan said another party to the Syrian crisis is Turkey, which is the only guarantor of the Syrian opposition.
"As part of its fight against terrorism, Turkey has created its own area starting from the Euphrates River to Idlib," he said.
In the political arena of the war, you see a more extensive number of actors, Orhan said.
"Due to the refugee issue and the foreign national terrorists, the Syrian civil war gained an international dimension and reached a level to threaten global security, especially in Europe.
"Thus, the Syrian crisis has turned out to be a global crisis involving European and even Far East countries."
Orhan said along with Russia, Turkey has also become a determinant for the Syrian conflict due to its successful military operations.
"The military failure of the Syrian opposition and the West's loss of interest in the Syrian crisis weakened Turkey's hand at first. The terror groups gaining power in northern Syria caused security concerns for Turkey. The refugee influx has mostly affected Turkey. However, Turkey took a risk and fought on the ground and minimized the risks.
"The U.S., on the other hand, is now far away from its initial goals. Iran is taking the issue from only a sectarian perspective, while Europe is enjoying its victory due to the decreasing number of terror acts and refugees," said Mehmet Mulazimoglu, a lecturer at Mehmet Akif Ersoy University's Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences.
"When the Syrian civil war first started, the main motivation of the U.S. and European countries was overthrowing the Assad regime," Orhan said.
The Western countries began to be concerned about the Syrian conflict when Daesh terrorists from more than 100 countries started flocking to Syria and carried out terrorist attacks in Western capital cities, he added.
Mulazimoglu said the refugee influx and the international terrorist groups were used as tools to intervene in the region.
Has the Syrian war ended?
The end of the war in Syria is only possible with a political solution, Orhan said.
"However, issues like Idlib, east of the Euphrates River, the future of the YPG and the new constitution are still waiting to be resolved."
Orhan said the Astana peace talks tremendously helped reduce tensions and clashes in Syria.
"Yet there are still a few areas that might see clashes in Syria. These are clashes between the regime and the opposition in Idlib, possible terrorist acts in Afrin, areas [controlled by Turkey after Operation] Euphrates Shield and eastern Syria resulting from the losses of the PKK/YPG and Daesh, Turkey's military moves against the PKK/YPG and finally confrontation between Iran, the U.S. and Israel on Syrian territories."
Mulazimoglu said the U.S. pullout from Syria will create a vacuum of authority east of the Euphrates River which might result in rivalries between local forces and even some clashes.
He described the Daesh terror group as "one of the results of the Syrian civil war which has roots in a large section of Syrians who have not politically been represented".
Syria geopolitically important for region
Drawing attention to the rifts between the regional actors, Orhan said Syria was a critical actor with its geopolitical importance.
"Unlike other Middle East countries, Syria does not have rich natural resources. However, Syria is one of the main actors of all critical problems in the Middle East -- that is Israel-Palestine, Lebanon, Shia-Sunni polarization, Iran-Israel rivalry, rising radicalism in the region and terror," he said.
For this reason, Orhan said a structural change in Syria has the capacity to overturn all the power balances in the region.
"That's why Russia and Iran, as Syria's former allies, did their best to protect Damascus when the popular uprisings reached Syria [in 2011]," said Orhan.
Orhan stressed Soviet-era close ties between Russia and Syria and further elaborated on why Syria is important for Russia.
"The Eastern Mediterranean region is one of the most prominent regions in world energy games due to newly discovered natural resources. Russia is one of the most powerful actors of this rivalry on a global scale and managed to be an influential state having two military bases in the region."
For Russia, a possible governmental change is a kind of intervention by the West, including the U.S., in its historical sphere of influence.
"Thus, Russia has struggled against a change in government in Syria, becoming, in the end, the most prominent country not only in the Middle East but also in world politics as the number one winner of the Syrian war," Orhan said.
The U.S.'s priority was Israel's security and halting Iranian strength in the region.
"Thus, the U.S. went for a change of the Syrian government which has close ties with Iran and is struggling with Israel," Orhan said.
Mulazimoglu said superpowers prefer a Syrian government under their control.
"If not, they are okay with more than one small state under their hegemony.”
Foreign national Daesh terrorists
European states have voiced concern over how to bring Daesh militants to trial after U.S. President Donald Trump demanded they take back and prosecute hundreds of foreign Daesh terrorists captured in Syria.
Orhan said there are nearly 800 foreign national Daesh terrorists and explained the difficulties of prosecuting them in their original countries and the risks when tried in Syria.
"When these terrorists return to their countries to face trial, the main difficulty is the lack of clear evidence to prosecute them, so they will be released after a very short detention period, which creates a security concern in European countries."
Even if the European countries accept these terrorists, they need to be deradicalized, rehabilitated and sentenced to solitary confinement, said Orhan.
"However, these processes need substructure and are costly.
"That's why the European countries want these terrorists to be prosecuted in Syria. Trump, on the other hand, is using it as a card against Europe. He wants Europe to take more responsibility for Syria," Orhan said.
Prosecuting foreign national Daesh terrorists in Syria actually poses risks for Turkey.
"In the long term, these terrorists might be released in Syria, which can cause instability along Turkish borders," Orhan said.
Or they may want to use Turkey as a passage to their original countries which, he added, may be a security threat for Turkey.
