- All-out war with Hezbollah will ‘likely come with extremely high costs for Israel,’ says Giorgio Cafiero, head of US-based geopolitical risk consultancy
- Israel had to withdraw from past confrontations ‘without achieving its objectives’ and a conflict now will ‘be long, costly and uncertain,’ says geopolitical analyst Ryan Bohl
- Hezbollah is ‘much more powerful’ than Hamas and will be ‘a really formidable opponent to Israel,’ says International Crisis Group’s David Wood
ISTANBUL
If Israel’s recent moves, posturing and messaging is anything to go by, then all-out escalation with Lebanon’s Hezbollah could be a matter of when, not if.
Analysts, however, are warning that Tel Aviv will face significant challenges in all domains, from military to political, if it goes down that route.
Geopolitical analyst Giorgio Cafiero said it would be “unimaginable for the Israelis to have some quick and decisive victory” in a large-scale conflict with Hezbollah.
“If Israel would decide to launch such an all-out war, the conflict would inevitably last for a very long time and would probably do nothing to advance Israel’s security interests,” Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based geopolitical risk consultancy, told Anadolu.
“To the contrary, such a move would likely come with extremely high costs for Israel.”
Since last October, there have been more than 7,000 cross-border attacks between Israel and Lebanon, according to various media estimates.
Their intensity has been picking up in recent weeks, heightening fears in capitals around the world, with countries such as the US, UK, Russia and others warning citizens to either leave or not travel to Lebanon.
Regional implications
One of the main concerns is a wider war that could drag in several countries and further destabilize the region.
“A war between Israel and Hezbollah would have much potential to regionalize and internationalize very quickly, at a much faster tempo and on a much grander scale than Israel’s war on Gaza,” said Cafiero.
“This makes the situation in northern Israel and Lebanon one that impacts global security.”
Many other Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa could be directly impacted, as well as various non-Arab countries of the Mediterranean, he said.
A major factor increasing the risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is Tel Aviv’s “continuation of its genocidal war on the people of Gaza,” he said.
“If a cease-fire would be implemented in Gaza, with all sides, including Israel, abiding by it, then the risks of a war between Israel and Hezbollah would decrease,” he explained.
“However, even if there is an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, it’s possible that the hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have reached a point where they have taken on their own escalatory dynamics that can’t be reversed based on anything that occurs vis-a-vis Gaza.”
Iran’s involvement
David Wood, senior analyst for Lebanon at the International Crisis Group, said if there is all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, it is “distinctly possible that the conflict could spread across the region,” with Iran particularly getting involved.
“Iran may feel compelled to become more involved, given that Hezbollah is such a crucial ally to Tehran. An all-out war might lead to growing calls from Israel for direct US intervention, especially if Hezbollah began launching devastating attacks on Israeli civilian areas and key infrastructure,” Wood told Anadolu.
Iran’s role in the conflict may include sending drones, missiles and other supplies to Hezbollah, according to geopolitical analyst Ryan Bohl.
Bohl stressed that Iran’s involvement depends on “if the Israelis destroy or kill someone very sensitive to the Iranians, similar to the Damascus consulate bombing that triggered the direct strikes (on Israel) in April.”
“That’s a possibility, particularly in a more full-scale Israeli campaign against Hezbollah. They could strike the Iranian Embassy again in Beirut or in Damascus or in Baghdad,” he told Anadolu.
“It can also trigger a more escalated war … (and) a resumption of Syrian and Iraqi militia attacks against US forces within those countries. That would prompt American responses from within those countries.”
Strategic and military strength
Analyst Cafiero reiterated that any potential war could drag on for a long time and prove to be “far more devastating than the 2006 war in terms of loss of life and property destruction.”
“Lebanon is a country with strategic depth, not a blockaded concentration camp like Gaza,” he said, adding that it would be easy for many Iran-backed non-state actors in West Asia to enter Lebanon to support Hezbollah.
“Such anti-Israeli groups in the region have made it clear that they would join the ranks of Hezbollah in the event of such a full-blown confrontation,” he said.
Even without the support of these non-state actors, Hezbollah itself is “a very powerful force, much more powerful than Hamas,” he added.
Bohl agreed and said that Israel’s past experiences in Lebanon, notably the 2006 war, serve as a cautionary tale.
“In previous attempts to confront Hezbollah militarily, Israel withdrew without achieving its objectives, underscoring Hezbollah’s resilience and strategic depth,” he said.
“History shows us that Hezbollah is not easily subdued. Any military campaign against them would likely be long, costly and uncertain in its outcomes.”
Wood, the International Crisis Group expert, echoed the same views, saying Hezbollah’s military capacity poses a major challenge to Israel.
“Many would agree that Israel hasn’t achieved its military objectives against Hamas. Hezbollah is a much more powerful entity and would present a really formidable opponent to Israel in a full-scale war,” he said.
“Attempting to invade southern Lebanon or launching a full-scale war against Hezbollah … Israel has attempted this this strategy several times in the past, and it’s never worked,” he added.
He also pointed to the issue of fatigue within the Israeli military, saying its troops are “exhausted from the campaign in Gaza and also on the northern border.”
Certain hardline figures in Israel are pushing for escalation with Hezbollah, but “they represent an extreme point of view on Israel’s options,” said Wood.
“I think there are also plenty of decision-makers in Israel who realize that … Israel has really struggled to wage military campaigns in the past, and now it’s facing Hezbollah at a time when, really, it’s never been stronger,” he added.
US giving Israel ‘all the matches and gasoline’
The US, although it wants de-escalation across the whole region, does not believe that it has “a diplomatic partner in Hezbollah or Iran at the moment,” said Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence firm RANE.
“They are implicitly sending signals to the Israelis that they will support a limited escalation in the north,” he said, adding that Washington is prepared to back the Israelis because it sees them “as being more on the defense in the north than being the offensive, aggressive power.”
“It’s not a green light, more like a yellow light to move into southern Lebanon,” he added.
Wood also stressed that the US has always been opposed to the idea of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah.
“As far as the US involvement is concerned, we know that the Biden administration has repeatedly stated since October 2023 that the White House does not want to see Israel’s war on Gaza further regionalize or internationalize,” he said.
There are valid concerns about how a Israel-Hezbollah war could undermine US interests in the region, he said.
Cafiero, however, pointed out that the policies and actions of the Biden administration “have dangerously encouraged Israel to behave in an absolutely reckless manner.”
“Israel is playing with fire in threatening Hezbollah, but the Biden administration is giving Netanyahu’s government all the matches and gasoline it wants,” he said.
