- Experts say attacks on vital systems are ‘one of the most explicit direct signals of weaponization of water’
- Globally, violence over water resources has reached record levels, according to Pacific Institute
ISTANBUL
As the US-Israel war with Iran escalates, a troubling reality is coming into focus: critical water systems are increasingly caught in the crosshairs of modern conflict.
From desalination plants in the Middle East to dams and pipelines in other war zones, the targeting of water infrastructure is emerging as a powerful and dangerous instrument of warfare.
Over the weekend, airstrikes and drone attacks struck desalination facilities in Iran and Bahrain, raising fears that the conflict could spill into systems that sustain daily life for tens of millions in one of the world’s most water-scarce regions.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the US of striking a desalination facility on Qeshm Island, saying the attack disrupted water supplies to roughly 30 villages and warning it could have “grave consequences.” Washington denied involvement.
A day later, Bahraini officials said an Iranian drone caused material damage to a desalination plant in the island nation, though authorities said the incident did not affect water supplies.
The threat comes at a particularly sensitive moment for the region as temperatures climb toward the peak of summer months, when water demand surges.
Experts warn that even temporary disruptions could quickly create humanitarian risks.
“Desalination plants provide anywhere from roughly half of national water supplies to nearly 90% in some Gulf countries,” said Mohammed Mahmoud, a water security expert and Middle East lead at the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health.
“When you impact infrastructure that generates the water supply and it goes offline, it creates a really dangerous situation,” he told Anadolu.
Growing reliance on desalination
The strategic importance of desalination was highlighted in a 2010 CIA assessment, which warned that disruption of Gulf desalination systems “could have more serious consequences than the loss of any other industry or commodity.”
Since then, the dependence has grown alongside the region’s rapid development.
Major cities such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha, Kuwait City and Jeddah are now almost entirely dependent on desalinated water supplies.
Across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, there were roughly 815 desalination plants, representing about 31% of global desalination capacity, drawing seawater from the Arabian Gulf in 2023.
Governments are also planning to nearly double that capacity in the coming years, with more than $53 billion expected to be invested in new desalination projects.
Currently, about 83% of the Middle East population faces severe renewable water scarcity, a figure projected to approach nearly 100% by 2050 as climate change intensifies, according to the World Resources Institute (WRI).
Water increasingly targeted in conflicts
The incidents in the Gulf reflect a wider global trend in which water systems are increasingly caught up in conflict.
A recent assessment by the Pacific Institute, a global think tank focused on water, found that violence linked to water resources has reached record levels globally.
According to the institute, 420 water-related violence events were recorded in 2024 – a 20% increase over 2023 and a 78% rise compared with 2022.
By comparison, only 24 such incidents were documented worldwide in 2000.
Experts categorize water-related violence in three main ways: water used as a weapon, water infrastructure damaged as a casualty of conflict, or disputes over water acting as a trigger for violence.
David Michel, a senior associate with the global food and water security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), explained that water can become a weapon of war.
“Water can be used as a tool directly to withhold water sources from adversaries or to flood territory controlled by an adversary,” he said.
One of the most striking examples came during the Russia-Ukraine war, when the Kakhovka dam was destroyed in a 2023 attack that both sides blamed on each other, flooding large areas downstream.
A war crime
International humanitarian law prohibits attacks on infrastructure essential to civilian survival, including water systems, but that does not mean these sorts of attacks are new.
“There has absolutely been recorded and historical evidence in recent years of the weaponization of water in times of conflict, which is actually a war crime,” Mahmoud said.
He pointed to the rise of ISIS (Daesh) in Iraq and Syria between 2014 and 2016, when the terrorist group seized dams and manipulated water flows to control communities and punish rivals.
“The water was being used by it as a way to subjugate different tribes or communities,” said Mahmoud.
Historical precedents in the Gulf also highlight the vulnerability of water infrastructure.
During the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq allegedly released hundreds of millions of barrels of oil into the Persian Gulf, contaminating seawater used by desalination plants. Kuwait was forced to rely on emergency water shipments from neighboring countries.
Mahmoud said that Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and the weaponizing of all resources offers another example.
While recent strikes in the Iran conflict have not yet reached that scale, analysts say they represent an alarming signal.
“Further direct deliberate attacks on desalination plants would be one of the most explicit direct signals of weaponization of water,” Michel said.
“Targeting the infrastructure would amount to deliberate attempts to disrupt the lives and welfare of the essentially innocent.”
Rising water tensions worldwide
The Pacific Institute’s analysis shows that 61% of water-related violence in 2024 involved direct attacks on water infrastructure, while 34% stemmed from disputes over water access or control, and 5% involved the deliberate use of water as a weapon of war.
“There were four times more water conflicts recorded between 2012 and 2021 than there were in the preceding decade,” Michel said.
About 16% of the incidents recorded last year were linked to the Russia-Ukraine war, while roughly 12% were associated with Israel’s war on Gaza. The Middle East, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa recorded the highest number of water-related incidents.
Michel said many water conflicts occur during internal conflicts such as civil wars or insurgencies, though tensions between states are also rising.
One recent example occurred in South Asia when India restricted water flows to Pakistan following an attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir in 2025, raising concerns about the future of the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty.
Michel described the move as an “unprecedented step,” noting that the treaty had survived two wars between India and Pakistan since it was signed in 1960.
Beyond conflict, experts say rising demand, climate change and ineffective water management are also increasing tensions over water resources.
Global water demand is expected to increase by 20-30% by 2050, while climate change is disrupting rainfall patterns and increasing the frequency of floods and droughts.
“There are multiple pressures on our shared water resources,” Michel said.
