By Ola Atallah
GAZA CITY, Palestine
Palestinian political analysts rule out the likelihood that Israel will launch a new war on the Hamas-run Gaza Strip due to "political factors", which they say dictate against an imminent confrontation between the Jewish state and Gaza-based resistance groups.
Following the death of seven members of the Al-Qassam Brigades (Hamas’ armed wing) -- reportedly while repairing a tunnel running under the Israel-Gaza border -- Israeli officials renewed their threat to launch a new war on the coastal enclave.
"If we are attacked via tunnels from the Gaza Strip, we will act very strongly against Hamas, with much greater force than was used during Operation Protective Shield [in mid-2014]," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said late last month.
Many Palestinian analysts, however, say such assertions amount to little more than bluster.
"Launching a new war [on Gaza] is no simple matter," Antoine Shalhat, a Palestinian expert on Israeli affairs, told Anadolu Agency.
"Currently, there are political factors that would likely prevent -- or at least delay -- any new military encounter between Israel and the resistance in Gaza," he said.
"Hamas, the Gaza Strip’s de facto ruler and leading Palestinian resistance movement, does not appear enthusiastic about taking part in a new war," he added, "especially in light of the ongoing [Israeli/Egyptian] blockade of the strip and the fact that damage sustained by Gaza in the last war has yet to be repaired."
As for Israel, Shalhat noted: "The situation these days is not ideal for a new [Israeli] war on Gaza; Israel has little justification for such a move."
What’s more, he went on, in the event of rapprochement between Turkey and Israel, the Gaza Strip’s humanitarian situation would likely improve.
Turkish officials, for their part, say any normalization of relations with Israel is conditional on easing the blockade on Gaza.
In a recent speech, Al-Qassam Brigades spokesman Abu Obaida warned Israel against even considering a fresh onslaught.
During the 2014 conflict, more than 2,322 Palestinians were killed in the Gaza Strip -- the vast majority of them civilians -- and 11,000 others injured, while much of the strip’s vital infrastructure was destroyed by 51 days of fierce Israeli bombardment.
According to Israeli figures, 68 Israeli soldiers and five civilians were killed in the conflict, while 2,522 Israelis -- including 740 soldiers -- were injured.
During the seven-week offensive, the Israeli army announced it had destroyed over 30 cross-border tunnels, with some Israeli military officials expressing surprise at the extent of the tunnel-building.
‘Political messages’
Tayseer Muheisen, a political science professor at Gaza’s Al-Azhar University, believes the Gaza-based resistance and Israel "are exchanging political messages by making mutual threats".
"Under the current circumstances, there’s little real indication that war is on the horizon," he told Anadolu Agency.
"Recent threatening exchanges between Hamas and Israel are just political messages," he said. "Threats by Hamas, for example, are meant to remind Israel that the terms of the [2014] truce agreement have yet to be fulfilled."
The 2014 conflict ended after Israel signed a cease-fire deal with Hamas-led Palestinian resistance factions. Among other things, the deal called for the two sides to eventually hold indirect talks to cement the terms of the agreement -- but these talks never materialized.
According to Muheisen, another factor that could serve to prevent a new war is Hamas’ awareness of the ongoing suffering of the Gaza Strip’s roughly 1.9 million inhabitants.
"The wreckage still reminds everyone of the devastating effects of the last onslaught, from which the strip has yet to recover," he said.
"Hamas is well aware that Gazans are still suffering from the psychological and economic effects of the last conflict," Muheisen added. "And it wants to mitigate this suffering as much as possible."
Mukhaimar Abu Saada, another political science professor at Gaza’s Al-Azhar University, agreed that current facts on the ground dictated against the eruption of a fresh conflict.
"Israel doesn’t want to launch a new war, which Hamas is calling a ‘battle of preparation’," he told Anadolu Agency.
"Israel knows Hamas is rebuilding its capacities after the last conflict by digging new cross-border tunnels and testing new missiles," Abu Saada said.
"However, Israel is also aware that Hamas -- as the Gaza Strip’s de facto governing power -- wants to mitigate the suffering of almost two million Palestinians who have remained under siege for the last 10 years," he added.
Abu Saada went on to voice doubt that Israel was prepared to take a chance on a new offensive, which may or may not lead to the desired outcome -- namely, the elimination of Hamas as a viable threat.
