by Zaki Shaikh and Andrew Jay Rosenbaum
LONDON
Relations between Russia and Germany have been strained by Russian actions in Ukraine and Syria -- but the two nations are trying to repair the damage.
The issue has become critical as the German parliament, on Dec. 4, voted to participate in airstrikes over Syria. This will place German forces right on the same line as those of Russia.
But the issue is critical for the future of Europe, according to Hannes Adomeit, a foreign policy expert with the Institute for International Relations in Paris. “Relations between Russia and Germany deteriorated markedly in 2014, and have remained strained,” Adomeit wrote in a note published in February 2015.
“The question is: Is this a temporary falling out, or a permanent shift in policy?” Adomeit asked. Germany has had a special relationship with Russia, and all of Europe has benefited from it. Is that all changed?
German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel on Dec. 6 called for “for an end to the ice age in the relations with Russia,” in an interview with German newspaper Bild am Sonntag. He also stressed that "in the long term there is no point in asking Putin to solve geopolitical problems like those in Syria, and at the same time to keep him from participating in the G8."
But it is clear that, beyond expressions of goodwill, the expectations of the two sides remain far apart.
As Germany assumes the chairmanship of the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2016, chairman of the non-governmental Council on Foreign and Defense Policy Fyodor Lukyanov emphasized the need to find new solutions.
“Presently Russia and the EU are in a fluid state,” Lukyanov said in an interview with Deutsche Welle on Nov. 14. “What’s needed is a new negotiating process and a new post-Helsinki agreement for which the principles must again be discussed collectively.”
“The cold relations between Russia and the West will not change by themselves. This requires sustained purposeful engagement, Lukyanov added. “Expectations that business interests will prove powerful enough to change policy have been disappointed."
Russia imports $45.5 billion from Germany, and exports $29.5 billion to it, so business is a key issue for the two countries. Western sanctions after Russia’s actions in Ukraine have bit heavily into the trade between the countries, however.
Nonetheless, there seems to be no clear way forward, experts on both sides admit.
The German government is suspicious of Putin’s intentions in Syria, analysts said. “There is a growing likelihood of falling into a trap set by Russian President Vladimir Putin who aims to maintain his influence in the Middle East and which he will be ready to use to save the regime in Syria,” political analyst Thorsten Jungholt wrote in the German newspaper Die Welt on Dec. 1. “Is Germany ready to pay this price?” Jungholt asked.
Such scepticism is echoed by German analyst Paul-Anton Kruger who wrote in the German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung on Dec 1: “Putin too does not have a viable strategy on how to end the war, he’s only after achieving tactical benefits.” Kruger warns that joining such plans in Syria “will be foolish because of their dangerous consequences.”
On the Russian side, analysts see the two countries as working at cross-purposes.
“While many countries wish to form a coalition to fight Daesh, the proposals they make are at cross-purposes, with each country pursuing a divergent goal. “While Russia is determined in its resolve, others remain dillydallying and indecisive. Will it be possible to form a coalition in which Russia is recognized as a leading nation in the fight against a common enemy?” asked Russian commentator Vladimir Plekhin in a recent analysis published by RIA Novosti on Dec. 7.
Plekhin does suggest a way forward for Germany, in its capacity has head of the OSCE, could seek a UN resolution on the conflict in Syria to provide a legal basis for the fight against Daesh.
Despite this clear lack of trust, there are some initiatives to create a rapprochement.
From Oct. 22-23, 200 German and Russian representatives met for the Petersberg Dialogue. This is a forum for government and business from both sides, one that has existed since the end of WWII. It was cancelled by German Chancellor Angela Merkel last year after the war in Ukraine escalated.
But little emerged from the forum, according to Judy Dempsey, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for Universal Peace.
Germany seeks to move Russia in the direction of modernization, and a more diversified economy, Dempsey explained in a note published in the Moscow Times on Oct. 28.
“But diversification and modernization breed new centers of economic and social influence. It weakens the grip of the state and creates competition. But it is exactly the idea of competition that the Kremlin does not want to encourage. Instead, for the moment, Putin prefers his interpretation of modernization. It is a view wedded to his status quo,” Dempsey said.
With these two, very different points of view, it is hard to see how Russia and German could improve relations in the near future. Such divergent points of view, in economics and politics, are hard to reconcile.
